Trade & Globalization

The Chinese premier Wen Jiabao is not a man given to revolutionary rhetoric. He normally speaks in the dry, careful language characteristic of Beijing's leaders. But six words he uttered last week could have revolutionary consequences for China, the world, and the Middle East.

Did he comment on Libya's civil war? On rising oil prices? On Middle East unrest? None of the above. In fact, he simply made a matter-of-fact declaration about China's future economic intentions. Here were the six words: "We will actively boost consumer demand."

Michele Wucker, president of the World Policy Institute and co-sponsor of the World Economic Roundtable, guest hosted Worldwide Exchange this morning and spoke about her recent paper advocating for a voluntary debt restructuring in Europe.

President Obama's budget speech was one part Obama, one part Clinton, one part China. The Obama part came at the end. It was a gesture toward recapturing the image he enjoyed between 2004 and 2008: As the guy who didn't hate and wasn't hated, the guy who could help red and blue America get along. "This sense of responsibility—to each other and to our country—this isn't a partisan feeling," Obama declared. "It isn't a Democratic or a Republican idea. It's patriotism."

-- This is a guest post by Jay Pelosky, Principal, J2Z Advisory, LLC --  When one considers Q1 2011 results: broad commodities up 12%, led by oil up 24%, S&P stocks up 6% in its best Q1 since 1998, USD down 4%, one asset class stands out and that is bonds - bonds were roughly flat across both the corporate and government space in Q1, even in the face of sharply rising commodity prices and inflation fears.

The Doha round of World Trade Organization talks is teetering once again on the edge of total collapse, about to miss yet another absolute and final deadline for an agreement.

-- This is a guest post by Jay Pelosky, Principal, J2Z Advisory, LLC --  Japan’s massive earthquake, follow on tsunami and subsequent nuclear power plant upheaval have reinforced uncertainty regarding the strength of global economic activity and the appropriate financial assets prices to reflect that activity. The Arab Spring and EU debt crisis meant such uncertainty was already in the air in the weeks preceding the March 11^th earthquake.

As was suggested in an earlier post, China has an unusual low level of consumption and unusual high level of investment and savings.  The high level of savings is not, as is often assumed, attributable only to an increase in household savings, but to a rise in savings in the corporate and government sectors.  From 2000 to 2008, 80% of the increase in China’s gross national savings took place in the government and corporate sectors, not among households.  (The savings rate data for this post is based on the

It is widely known that China needs to rebalance its economy to rely more on consumption, but the extent of China’s imbalance between consumption and investment is not fully appreciated.  Comparisons to other emerging markets and countries like Japan, Taiwan, and Korea that pioneered the East Asian growth model show that China’s low levels of consumption are unparalleled.

Last Friday, oil contracts traded in New York closed at $104.42 per barrel, levels not seen since September 2008. This second spike in as many weeks comes after fierce fighting in Libya has raised fears of an extended civil war and the shutdown of what the International Energy Agency estimates might be more than 1 million barrels of oil production per day.

Reuters is also reporting that hedge funds and big speculators have weighed into the market, seeing the real possibility of sustained high prices for petroleum.

China has grown rapidly for over a few decades but the engine of China's recent growth may be reaching its limit. Are the rapid GDP gains from its fixed investment and export model coming to an end?  And what, if anything, will replace it, and with what consequences for the world economy?