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Policy Paper

A Recovery At Risk

October 11, 2010 |

Click here to download the slideshow, "A Recovery at Risk."

Contents

I.  Drivers of the Recovery

  • Inventory Rebuild         
  • Business Investment         
  • Government Stimulus
  • Government Support for Consumers
  • Consumption Gains

II. Growth is Fading

  • End of the Inventory Rebuild
  • Slowing Business Investment
  • Government Stimulus Declines
  • A State Fiscal Crisis Bites
  • Eroding Income Support
  • Consumer Rebates Borrow Demand

III. Continuing Headwinds

  • Household Deleveraging
  • Deleveraging Means More Savings
  • Credit Continues to Contract
  • A Housing Collapse
  • Declining Household Wealth
  • High Unemployment
  • Wage Stagnation
  • Widening Trade Deficit
  • Global Overcapacity and Devaluations
  • Policy and Business Uncertainty

IV. Policy Implications

  • A Bleaker Outlook
  • Policy Produced an Unsustainable Recovery
  • Policy Conclusions