More than a month has passed since the coup that removed Honduran President
Manuel Zelaya from office, and still today no one can predict how and when, let
alone if, the crisis will be resolved. While there are some promising
developments underway--the Honduran armed forces have backed Costa Rican
President Oscar Arias's mediation effort, and the de facto president, Roberto
Micheletti, has suggested he might agree to Zelaya's return--there are still
many imponderables. How far are Zelaya and his Venezuelan, Nicaraguan, and
Cuban sponsors willing to go to restore him to power? How long can Micheletti
resist tacit international sanctions?
An opportunity to break new ground in Honduras
and Latin America comes on Aug. 9 when Mexican
President Felipe Calderón, U.S. President Barack Obama, and Canadian Prime
Minister Stephen Harper gather at the annual trilateral North American summit.
They can begin to address the Honduran coup by correcting a misstep committed
more than a month ago at the meetings of the Organization of American States
and the Rio Group. At those meetings, the leaders essentially aligned
themselves with Venezuela's
Hugo Chávez and his left-wing allies--Nicaragua's
Daniel Ortega, Rafael Correa from Ecuador,
and Evo Morales from Bolivia--in
their condemnation of the coup. Now they ought to rectify that error by
reaffirming their condemnation of the events but go on to point out that the
coup did not take place in a vacuum. It occurred because of the polarization of
Honduran society wrought by Zelaya's alignment with Chávez, the Nicaraguans,
and the Cubans, and by his obvious attempt to keep himself in office with the
same kinds of undemocratic strategies that have already been used by Chávez,
Correa, and Morales, and that are now being planned by Ortega. The causes and
consequences of the coup matter.
In trying to mediate, the leaders of the Americas have effectively taken
sides in an ideological battle, but there is a way to right the balance. At
their meeting, Obama, Harper, and Calderón should reaffirm and expand on their
commitment to the Inter-American Democratic Charter, which calls on all members
to defend democracy and was signed in 2001 by every government in the
hemisphere, except for Cuba.
(This writer signed on Mexico's
behalf.) Article 19 calls for the suspension of any member state during serious
interruptions of the democratic order, including "an unconstitutional
alteration of the constitutional regime." It has been invoked only twice--against
the 2001 coup against Chávez and against the Honduran coup--but it should be
applied everywhere in Latin America, all the
time, not selectively when one group of countries is unhappy. It should have
applied to the electoral fraud in Nicaragua
last year, the eviction of the elected mayor of Caracas
this year, and the repression in Bolivia. It should apply to all
presidents defenestrated by the military, like Zelaya, but also to those
overthrown by the "street," like Fernando de la Rúa in Argentina in
2001, Bolivia's Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada and Carlos Meza in 2003 and 2005,
respectively, and Lucio Gutiérrez in Ecuador in 2005.
The charter is ambiguous in places, because in 2001 the only way to achieve
a consensus was by resorting to generalities. If that is a problem in applying
the charter more evenhandedly, then the leaders should call for the creation of
a working group to revisit the charter and attempt to dot the i's and cross the
t's.
Finally, the three leaders should take on the difficult matter of economic
sanctions against Honduras.
The OAS and the Venezuelans, and ironically even the Cubans, have called for
trade sanctions against the Micheletti government, and the Inter-American
Development Bank, the European Union, the U.S. Agency for International
Development, and the World Bank have all temporarily suspended aid to the
region's third-poorest country. While there are good reasons for applying
sanctions to Honduras, and they may even work, the three North American leaders
should make it clear that they can be permissible only if very clear guidelines
are laid down regarding their duration, their applicability to other
conceivable cases, and the firm commitment by parties who can make them
effective, like the United States, to resort to similar measures in similar
situations in the future. If not, the sanctions will be seen as a form of
placating Chávez--with Obama, Calderón, Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva,
Chile's Michelle Bachelet, and other democratic leaders of the hemisphere
simply bending over backward to appear opposed to the coup, regardless of its
causes, its consequences, and the precedents that sanctions may create.