Senator George Mitchell is one of America's most impressive public servants.
He has served the state of Maine well, chaired any number of
commissions for various presidents since his senate retirement and
patiently plodded through years of work and negotiations with
historically opposed foes in the Northern Ireland peace process and
achieved peace.
However, he may not be the right envoy to restart Israeli-Palestinian talks.
Mitchell telegraphed the problem from the day that Barack Obama, the
US president, announced his appointment on the first work day of the
new administration.
Mitchell said that all parties would have to
be patient and that it takes years for a process such as the one being
envisioned -- to create peace between two eventually viable states of
Israel and Palestine -- to come to fruition.
However, he failed
to acknowledge that the negotiations over what Palestine would
eventually become have been taking place for decades and have involved
many US presidents.
He is not starting at zero and there is not
much time left to achieve a new and more constructive 'equilibrium'
between Israel and Palestine. I prefer the term 'equilibrium' over the
more hopeful and naïve goal of 'peace'.
Fault Line
With all due respect to those involved in some of the fantastic
achievements in resolving the Northern Ireland issue, that conflict was
not a fault line at the centre of global stability.
The conflict between Israel and Palestine is no longer about either
of these strategically immature entities. The conflict is about much
more - and the Israel/Palestine fault line is one of the San Andreas
fault lines of the global order.
This conflict has massive regional and global consequences:
Negotiations with Syria and Iran, the stability of Iraq, the prospects
of normalisation of relations between the Arab League and Israel, even
the toxicity of Arab jihadist rhetoric and its appeal in Afghanistan
and Pakistan are affected by Israel's occupation of Palestinian
territories.
After the disappointing announcement by Obama in his trilateral
meeting with Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, and Binyamin
Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, that all parties had failed to
secure agreement to move negotiations forward, the US president did not
back off.
He said that this was going to remain a priority for him and that we could not afford to settle with the mess we have today.
Obama made this point even more strongly the next day during his UN
General Assembly speech which conveyed to his own staff what a priority
this was to him -- and how this priority needed to be proceeded.
Fake
or failed efforts are not going to be accepted by Obama. He gets how
globally consequential this standoff remains, and he knows that Israel
and Palestine need to be compelled to do more than they have done.
Begging Israel
But Mitchell, with all due respect to this great man, is practically begging Israel to co-operate.
Israel will not. It has no incentive to do so. It is the regional superpower and has the upper hand as the occupier in question.
The most important lesson to be learned from the failed Annapolis
process is that without two things -- genuine US presidential
'engagement' and a broader stakeholder approach to the problem that
does not depend on the goodwill of just Palestine and Israel -- the
conflict will not be resolved.
Mitchell has been meeting with everyone in the region about the
conflict but his comments and his focus have been on trying to move
Palestine and Israel to behave responsibly and in ways that fit their
collective interest.
He should have been seeking agreement from
the Saudis, Jordanians, Russians, Europeans, Syrians, Egyptians, the
UN, and the Arab League in general to come to terms on what the world
feels would be acceptable in a final status framework -- and then impose
that construct on the parties.
This would move us beyond the
pathetic whining to try to get the process started to one that would be
more about the implementation of a final status framework.
When Mitchell goes back to the region, he needs to stiffen his
backbone and communicate to parties on both sides of the conflict that
the world is not going to wait for them to continue to mismanage their
interests.
He should also meet with Hamas and get beyond that taboo.
Seduced
Abbas was seduced by the Obama team into believing that this time would be different.
Saeb Erekat, his chief negotiator, is particularly disheartened that
Obama has seemingly backed off from his insistence that Israel cease
any settlement expansion before negotiations begin.
Mitchell will now have to get the Palestinians to continue to believe in a process which has only humiliated them.
He could still surprise observers and pull something off, but
rationality is not allowing me to give him much prospect of success
given the way he is approaching the challenge.
Once we see the Mitchell plan eventually unveiled, the power and
leverage that Mitchell has now -- mostly because of the secrecy of his
meetings and the opaqueness of his views -- will dissipate.
If Mitchell does not reinvent himself and the process, if he does
not get to a point where he communicates Obama's steel-fashioned
resolve to see results from both parties, and does not begin to
assemble a ring of stakeholders willing to reward and punish both
Israel and Palestine in a tough-minded agreement on final status
issues, then he needs to be given the Presidential Medal of Freedom by
Obama for his good work and then given another big task, perhaps in
Mexico.
And then Obama will need to call Bill Clinton ....