These systems are too vital to leave in such a fragile state. We have a choice: We can complete the construction of the top-down, semi-authoritarian, corporatist industrial system that all but inevitably resulted from the evisceration of our antitrust and trade laws. Or we can revert to our traditional American approach of enforcing competition, at home and abroad, in ways that harness such energies always to constructive ends.
In the spring of 2005, David Stockman at last reaped the reward of the monopolist.
Stockman, who once served as Ronald Reagan's budget director, spent
two decades on Wall Street preparing for this moment. After stints at
Salomon Brothers and the Blackstone Group, Stockman in 1999 set up his
own private investment fund, Heartland Industrial Partners. He then
used Heartland to shape a set of companies -- mainly in the automotive
sector -- each dedicated to dominating a particular group of production
activities.
Of all Stockman's efforts, his most audacious centered on a firm
named Collins & Aikman. Stockman used C&A as a vehicle to buy
up small producers of interior components like dashboards and seats,
and he swiftly captured a position supplying parts to more than 90
percent of all cars built in America. Although the acquisition spree
left C&A saddled with debt, Stockman was so pleased with C&A's
prospects that in 2003 he assumed control as chief executive officer.
When the time came to choose his first target, Stockman took aim at
Chrysler. The company offered ready cash; Chrysler was still controlled
by the deep-pocketed German automaker Daimler. And it had a fat
vulnerability; in early 2005 the company had a big hit with its
Chrysler 300 sedan. Stockman's message was simple: Pay a premium for
C&A?manufactured components, or he would shut off the flow of
critical supplies to the main assembly line of this highly lucrative
car.
Not many years ago, it was all but unthinkable that a mere supplier
would dare to hold up one of the Big Three in such a blatant manner. As
The Detroit Free Press reported at the time, such acts were
considered "the auto industry equivalent of a nuclear weapon -- rarely
threatened and almost never used." But Stockman's gambit worked
perfectly. Chrysler agreed to provide C&A with between $65 million
and $75 million in the second and third quarters of 2005. Better yet,
General Motors, Toyota, and other big automakers with North American
plants heard Stockman's message loud and clear. Even without direct
threats, they agreed to provide Stockman and C&A with another $260
million to $270 million in price increases and low-cost loans.
Unfortunately for Stockman, he appears to have mis-timed his play
for a big payday. More specifically, this onetime head of the Office of
Management and Budget (who in 1981 angered his fellow Reagan
revolutionaries when he told reporter William Greider that "none of us
really understands what's going on with all these numbers") failed to
keep his own creditors at bay. On May 12, 2005, Stockman was fired by
the C&A board. Five days later, C&A filed for bankruptcy.
In and of itself, Stockman's stickup of America's automotive
industry is not an especially important event. The problem is that
Stockman was not alone. In recent years, many other monopolists made
similar plays in the supply system that serves the American automotive
industry. The result was a process of bottom-up consolidation that
revolutionized the financial and physical structures of the entire
industry in ways that undermined its stability and sustainability.
This type of consolidation is not limited to the automotive sector.
On the contrary, Stockman's monopoly and subsequent power play
exemplify what we have witnessed -- often on a far grander scale- -- in
most of the vital industries on which we rely.
***
The idea that America's automotive industry has been monopolized in
any respect can seem absurd. After all, when we shop for a new car,
many different companies vie for our dollars, with sometimes manic
vigor. But under the hood, whether it's a Ford or a Chrysler or a
Toyota, a growing proportion of the component parts were made by the
same set of manufacturers, often on the same production lines.
This is remarkably different from the way the automobile industry
used to be organized. Well into the 1990s, most manufacturers were
vertically integrated and built most of the components for their
products in their own factories. The great apostle of vertical
integration was Henry Ford, who erected an industrial complex outside
Detroit where ships unloaded coal and iron ore at one end and workers
drove finished Model As onto railroad cars at the other. Over the
course of the 20th century, almost all of America's biggest industrial
corporations, including IBM, DuPont, and General Electric, adopted this
same basic structure. One result of such vertical integration was that
almost all key industrial activities were replicated many times over.
In the auto industry, for instance, every firm manufactured its own
alternators, piston rings, and windshield wipers.
Vertical integration was neither a necessary nor natural form of
organization. The history of industrial activity is replete with
systems in which many producers competed with one another in open
market-centered arrangements. Early in the 20th century, Detroit was
home to a great many small and medium-sized manufacturers engaged in
vibrant competition. The vertical integration model is merely a
business strategy, one that managers pursue to gain an advantage over
their competitors or to protect themselves from predation. That said,
in 20th-century America, the model became the norm.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, managers in many industries began
to embrace an alternative strategy: outsourcing. There was nothing
especially new about outsourcing; the term implies little more than the
disintegration of a vertically integrated firm. Nor was there anything
mysterious about why managers began to split apart what their forebears
had joined together. Laws and customs had begun to change.
One of the most important changes was private and voluntary.
Impressed by the quality of Toyota's cars and the efficiency of its
plants, American managers began to study that company's production
methods, which aimed to eliminate all parts inventories through a more
flexible use of machinery and workers. This led many manufacturers to
embrace such related Toyota strategies as reliance on single sources of
supply, often located outside the company.
Meanwhile, laws designed to bring American corporations more
directly under the control of financiers encouraged corporate managers
to focus more on making money and less on making quality goods.
Liberalization of trade laws reduced fears -- both among managers and
the population in general -- of mercantilist aggressions by nations
like Japan, China, and Germany. Most important was the Reagan
administration's overthrow of antitrust law in 1981, an act that
established a new overarching goal for regulating competition. Rather
than seek to ensure competition for the sake of competition, the aim
now was to clear the way for any efficiencies that might benefit the
consumer, no matter how much consolidation this entailed.
The result was an entirely new legal environment, one that made
breaking up the traditional industrial complex much more attractive.
Outsourcing offered a quick path to cash, as it enabled managers
simultaneously to sell off in-house operations and to offload costly
liabilities like union pensions. Outsourcing also promised longer-term
savings as managers began to take advantage of the more lax competition
laws to pool some production activities with rival companies. In the
automotive industry this pooling took place in two ways. First,
managers gathered in-house operations into new units and then spun
these units off as independent firms that were free to serve
competitors; two of the biggest products of this reorganization were
Delphi, spun off by General Motors, and Visteon, spun off by Ford.
Second, managers at different automakers increasingly turned to the
same existing suppliers, like Bosch and C&A, for the same parts.
Top auto-industry managers never expected that the pooling of
supply activities would continue to a point where any outside supplier
would manage to capture nearly complete control over a production
activity. On the other hand, no manager at a top-tier firm appears ever
to have made any concerted effort to prevent such consolidations. The
general assumption seemed to be that this industrial system would
somehow regulate itself and that new suppliers would continue to emerge
naturally.
And so the path was left open for private financiers like David
Stockman, and for managers at parastatal corporations in nations like
Japan and China, to grab whatever production activities they wished and
to consolidate them to whatever degree they desired. The result was a
process of monopolization entirely unlike what we have seen in the
past. Traditionally, monopolies have been imposed from the top down,
via the merger of top firms or the bankruptcy of main rivals. Over the
last three decades, by contrast, monopolization in complex industries
has usually taken place mainly in the supply base, proceeding from the
bottom up.
The resulting structure is unlike any we have seen before. One way
to understand this new organization of industrial activity is to
conjure a picture of the mythological Greek monster the Hydra. In the
case of the auto industry, we see many heads, with names like General
Motors, Toyota North America, and Ford. We also increasingly see a
single body, composed of an ever shrinking number of ever more
specialized firms, like C&A, that dominate supply of some component
or family of products, be it piston rings or electronic controls or
cockpit assemblies.
Monopolization always creates certain basic problems, especially a
tendency toward higher prices and slower innovation. But the bottom-up
monopolization of an entire supply base also poses entirely
unprecedented financial and physical dangers, precisely because it
proceeds without any direction by any rational governor (private or
public). There is no one with any interest in ensuring the safety and
stability of the system as a whole.
The Obama administration's economic team deserves much credit for
its handling of the American auto industry. When President Barack Obama
took office in January, General Motors and Chrysler were basically
bankrupt while Ford's fate was cloudy at best. In remarkably swift
fashion, the Auto Task Force managed to cleanse both GM and Chrysler of
bad debt and excess dealers. And it did so in a way that did not punish
companies like Ford and Toyota for having done a better job of managing
their assets.
But the bailout of Detroit is just the first step in a much
wider-ranging process. With the immediate crisis averted, we need to
address the growing instability of this industrial system. To do so
effectively, we must first understand the fundamental structural flaws
created by bottom-up monopolization. Three are paramount.
The first fundamental flaw is that competition within such a
structurally monopolized system can result in the destruction of the
real properties and the capital society has entrusted to both the lead
corporations and their suppliers. Some destruction results from any act
of monopolization, of course, as alternative workers, technologies, and
equipment are eliminated. The deeper problem is that such destruction
often continues even after monopolization in the supply base is more or
less complete.
One of the most stubborn myths about monopolization is that it
eliminates competition, making it easier for both managers and
financiers to plan and invest for the long term. In practice,
monopolization only redirects competition. In place of competition
along horizontal lines (between firms vying to offer the same basic
products and services) monopolization tends to increase competition
along vertical lines. Such competition can take place within a firm,
such as between the workers who actually create a product and the
financiers who control the corporation. Or it can take place among the
various firms in a production chain. In the most common instance, a
firm that has captured control over a particular market may use that
power to strip profits from suppliers that depend on the lead firm to
get to their customers. But as we've seen with C&A and other giant
component-makers such as Intel, dominant suppliers can also strip
profits from lead firms.
A system that fosters rivalry among large lead firms and
consolidation among smaller suppliers can be especially destructive
because it combines vertical and horizontal competition in a way that
can all but guarantee the bankruptcy of all the major players in the
system. At one end of the system, immensely powerful lead firms like
Toyota and Ford are still engaging in the sort of tough, horizontal
competition that tends to limit the total amount of cash flowing into
the production system as a whole. At the other, chaotic vertical
competition between these powerful lead firms and dominant suppliers
like C&A can prevent both the lead firms and the suppliers from
stabilizing their cash flow.
Such a system, in other words, is composed of bankrupt lead firms
with the power to bankrupt their suppliers, and bankrupt suppliers with
sufficient power to bankrupt lead firms.
The second fundamental flaw with such structural monopolization is
that it can be very difficult, if not impossible, to isolate and to
punish economic failure. Any sudden failure of either a large lead firm
or a dominant supplier has the potential to create massive financial
disruptions. This means that when the managers of a large lead firm,
like GM, act irresponsibly, the other members of the system -- or the
government -- have no choice but to bail the firm out to prevent the
whole system from seizing up. In such a tightly communalized system,
even many small players are too big to fail.
Ford CEO Alan Mulally offered one of the clearest descriptions of
this dilemma in testimony to Congress last fall. The automotive
industry is "uniquely interdependent," he said. This was particularly
true "with respect to our supply base, with more than 90 percent
commonality among our suppliers. Should one of the other domestic
companies declare bankruptcy, the effect on Ford's production
operations would be felt within days -- if not hours." Which is why,
contrary to all traditional economic theory, Mulally went on to plead
for a bailout of Ford's arch rival, GM. And why Toyota executives soon
followed suit.
The third fundamental flaw with such bottom-up structural
monopolization is perhaps the most disturbing -- not least because the
potential disaster here is one that no mere financial bailout can fix.
In any system organized along these lines, a natural or man-made
disaster that knocks some keystone factory off line can trigger a
cascading industrial crash that paralyzes production everywhere. The
best recent illustration of how such a crash plays out comes from
Japan, where the automotive industry there has been structurally
monopolized in much the same way as in America. The fantastic physical
instability of such a structure was made clear in July 2007, when an
earthquake in Niigata province smashed a piston-ring factory run by a
small supplier named Riken. Within hours, the loss of this one plant
led all 12 of Japan's main car and truck manufacturers to shut down. It
turned out they all relied on one factory to produce a component that
cost less than $5.
The old vertical integration model isolated financial and industrial
risk and all but forced managers to act responsibly. Bottom-up
structural monopolization, by contrast, results in a system that almost
instantly transforms one company's disaster into every company's
disaster.
***
When Reagan officials overturned our traditional approach to
enforcing anti-monopoly law, they did so for purely political reasons.
Their immediate goal was to privatize the power to regulate competition
and then use that power to erect institutional structures that would
enable the few to consolidate wealth and power in society as a whole. A
generation later it is clear that this radical political act also
resulted in a revolutionary restructuring of many of our most vital
production systems in ways that left them far more vulnerable to
financial and physical disruptions.
That's why it is vital to understand that the sort of consolidation
we have witnessed in the automotive industry is true of most of the
industrial systems that serve us today. We first saw such a process of
bottom-up structural monopolization take hold in the electronics
industry in the late 1980s, as a variety of private firms and national
governments exercised power in ways that enabled them to capture
control over one production capability or technology. Since then we
have seen the process play out in the chemical and metal industries,
and in service industries such as information processing and finance.
Perhaps most terrifying, this specialization and concentration is
increasingly imposed on our industrial food and pharmaceutical sectors.
In a sense, David Stockman and the other monopolists in the
automotive industry have done us a favor. The fact that they were able
to consolidate so many activities so swiftly in such a big and complex
industry proves that we must act now to reverse the process everywhere.
It also illuminates the fantastic folly of placing in private hands the
power to regulate competition within vital industrial systems, in ways
that aim not at the common good but at private profit only.
The good news is that Americans are very adept at making systems
stable and safe. We long ago learned how to build compartments into our
ships and circuit breakers in our electrical systems and alternative
routers in the Internet. We also learned how to build financial
reserves into our banks and how to regulate our industrial systems to
be the most resilient and productive on Earth.
In the case of our automotive industry -- and most of the complex
industrial activities where we have seen bottom-up monopolization -- we
can choose between two ways of making these systems once again
financially and physically stable.
One is to treat these industries as the semi-monopolized utilities
they now are and create a single sovereign body to regulate them from
the top down, in a way that ensures their physical and financial
stability. Such a regulator can be public (the government) or it can be
private (a cartel of leading firms tasked with ensuring that all
players share all costs fairly).
The alternative is to reform the various legal regimes (including
trade and corporate governance as well as antitrust) that determine how
corporate managers structure the industrial systems on which we depend,
in order to ensure real "competition" both among giant lead firms like
Ford and Toyota and among the companies that manufacture components for
them. The immediate goal would be to guarantee that no group, either a
private business corporation or a nation state, can ever seize control
of any industrial activity on which we depend, no matter how small. The
natural byproduct of such a system would be redundancy and resiliency.
The one option that is not acceptable is to do nothing. These
systems are too vital to leave in such a fragile state. We have a
choice: We can complete the construction of the top-down,
semi-authoritarian, corporatist industrial system that all but
inevitably resulted from the evisceration of our antitrust and trade
laws. Or we can revert to our traditional American approach of
enforcing competition, at home and abroad, in ways that harness such
energies always to constructive ends.
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