It seems hardly a day can go by without
a news item on China's campaign for World Trade Organization
membership and the closely related issue of the United States
extending it permanent normal-trade-relations status.
China has reportedly decided it is committed to gaining WTO
membership this year -- regardless of a U.S. congressional vote
on permanent NTR. Europe continues its own negotiations with
China on WTO membership.
Generally absent from the public debate, however, is discussion
of WTO membership for Taiwan, also known as the ""other
China,'' which is likely to have a greater short-term impact
on the U.S. economy.
Even many informed observers overlook the fact that Taiwan
is a more important market for U.S. exports than China. Last
year, Taiwan imported $19. 1 billion worth of goods from the
United States; China imported only $13.1 billion.
Over the last two decades, Taiwan has consistently been a more
important market for most U.S. industries, including those most
aggressively advocating Beijing's WTO membership, than China.
The relative lack of attention to Taiwan's WTO membership in
the United States is even more surprising since virtually all
observers concede that Taiwan is likely to be a better WTO member
than China.
In contrast to China's consistent record of shirking its commitments
under trade agreements, Taiwan has aggressively negotiated meaningful
commitments with all of its major trading partners and has a
good record of fulfilling the trade promises it has made.
Taiwan forthrightly began the WTO negotiations by committing
to accept the full set of obligations assumed by all developed
countries. For its part, China has argued that its development
status should exempt it from discipline.
Economic estimates of increases in exports are always debatable.
Especially in light of China's compliance record and the constant
prospect that China may devalue its currency, however, the chances
are quite good that Taiwan's WTO membership will demonstrate
a greater increase in U.S. exports than China's. This projection
is particularly strong for the next 10 years.
In light of all this, it is perplexing that Taiwan's WTO membership
has been a nearly invisible issue. This dearth of attention
is all the more surprising because there is really only one
reason why Taiwan is not now a WTO member: China does not want
Taiwan to join the WTO before it does.
After World War II, China and Taiwan were at comparable levels
of economic and political development. China has grown well
for the last decade and a half, but Taiwan has surged past it.
Taiwan is now a major trading power with a fully developed economy
and democratic government; China is short of those marks.
Apparently believing that Taiwan's WTO membership would underline
the differences between the two, China has fought Taiwan's membership
through surrogates. The central problem is that Beijing believes
that it should control Taiwan. Obviously, in practice it does
not. But China usually fights tooth and nail against any measures,
including membership for Taiwan in international negotiations,
that seem to raise questions about the increasingly tenuous
claim.
By spending diplomatic capital and acting through surrogate
countries that are WTO members, China has managed to keep Taiwan
-- which is widely seen around the world as an excellent candidate
for WTO membership -- out of the WTO.
According to statements made by trade officials from a number
of countries, China has agreed to let Taiwan join the WTO, once
it has been allowed to join. Trade officials in many countries,
including Taiwan, treat this as a firm agreement.
But Beijing's record on past promises should at least give
all reason to wonder if China, upon achieving membership, might
try some last-minute strategy to block Taiwan's membership.
There has been, for example, speculation in the press that China
might try to insist that Taiwan agree to a change in the name
on its application.
To avoid this problem, Taiwan has sought membership in the
WTO as a customs territory, not as an independent country. There
are, however, limits on the degree that Taiwan would go to protect
Beijing's illusions, and China could seek to use these to derail
Taiwan's WTO application.
If there is any lesson to be drawn from experience on agreements
with China -- unofficial and otherwise -- it is that there is
""many a slip between the cup and the lip.''
Assuming an adequate regime is in place to enforce China's
compliance with the WTO, Beijing should be allowed to join the
WTO. But U.S. trade officials and Congress should spare no effort
to ensure that Taiwan, by far the better WTO candidate, is also
allowed to join.