Something predictable has happened to Barack Obama's breathtaking ascent. His star is still in the sky but the shine is fading. Almost six months after launching his presidential bid, Mr Obama's poll numbers remain stubbornly behind those of Hillary Clinton.

At the national level, Mrs Clinton's lead over Mr Obama averages 35 per cent to Mr Obama's 22 per cent. In the small states where the crucial early primary elections will be staged next January to determine the Democratic 2008 nominee, Mrs Clinton leads by 14 points in New Hampshire, 17 points in Nevada and by two points in South Carolina...

Mrs Clinton's campaign believes its in-built advantages are beginning to lend her an unstoppable momentum. Of these, Mrs Clinton's experience and easy familiarity with policy detail are high on the list - and they were on display in the two recent televised Democratic debates, which helped boost her poll numbers...

Mr Obama's challenge is large. In his favour is the American public's growing discontent with all things Washington, which Mr Obama is using to his advantage by playing on the fact he only moved to America's capital in 2004 after becoming a senator. By contrast, Mrs Clinton looks like an establishment candidate.

"Hillary Clinton's candidacy is about doing the status quo in a much smarter way than the Republicans," says Mark Schmitt at the New America Foundation, a centrist think tank. "Mr Obama's message is much more ambitious - it is about changing the way politics is done in America. It is riskier but much more exciting..."

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