Over a period of nine months, U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman’s political fortunes spun from being rejected by his party after three decades of service to solidly winning a fourth term and returning to Washington as a hybrid "independent Democrat."

But then, after repeatedly promising to remain a Democrat and caucus with them if re-elected, Lieberman dropped a bombshell last week when he refused to rule out switching to the Republican side, although he added in an NBC interview, "I hope I don’t get to that point..."

The 51-49 Democratic majority in the Senate, come January, gives the Democrats the thinnest of margins, and a switch by Lieberman would result in a tie on party-line votes, throwing the deciding vote on controversial issues to Vice President Dick Cheney...

Mark Schmitt, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, thought Lieberman was engaging in payback for all the misery he underwent during the long election campaign.

"I think he is having fun with this now, having fun getting people upset who were, in his view, particularly either disloyal or nasty to him. It’s a little bit of a personal thing," Schmitt said.

As for any enhanced leverage this would give him, Schmitt said he doesn’t think Lieberman has vastly greater power than any other senator who cannot always be counted on to vote for the party.

"There are lots of people who you always have to court and make sure you know what they want and make sure they are taken care of on any given vote," said Schmitt, an expert on politics and political reform.

From a pragmatic point of view, Schmitt said there are other factors that mitigate against a party switch by Lieberman.

"The electoral map looks so bad for Republicans in 2008, he would very quickly find himself in the minority again," he said.

If the senator did step into the GOP ranks, the 50-50 party split would allow Cheney to break tie votes, but committees would be organized with half from each party, unlike a Republican majority, where they would have a numerical advantage on committees, Schmitt said.

"I wouldn’t think that he has that much to gain from the threat and probably unlikely that it would be a wise move for him to do it," Schmitt said.

Schmitt also thought the consensus on the war will probably be to set goals for resolution of the fighting, which Schmitt said could ultimately be supported across party lines with the Baker-Hamilton Commission giving cover for a new direction.

As for bringing home the bacon to Connecticut, Galston said Lieberman worked hard to do so during his first three terms and would probably work even harder this time to avoid repeating "the near-death experience" he just went through.

With Dodd in his fifth term, Schmitt said Connecticut already has a lot of clout with two senior senators in the majority party. "That’s good for Connecticut, regardless of threats," he said.

For the complete article, please visit The New Haven Register website.