Two years ago, Pervez Musharraf,
who was then Pakistan’s President
and Army chief, summoned his most senior
generals and two Foreign Ministry
officials to a series of meetings at his military
office in Rawalpindi. There, they reviewed
the progress of a secret, sensitive
negotiation with India, known to its participants
as “the back channel.” For several
years, special envoys from Pakistan
and India had been holding talks
in hotel rooms in Bangkok, Dubai, and
London. Musharraf and Manmohan
Singh, the Prime Minister of India, had
encouraged the negotiators to seek what
some involved called a “paradigm shift”
in relations between the two nations.
The agenda included a search for an
end to the long fight over Kashmir, a
contest that is often described by Western
military analysts as a potential trigger
for atomic war. (India first tested a
nuclear weapon in 1974, and Pakistan
did so in 1998.) Since achieving independence,
in 1947, India and Pakistan
have fought three wars and countless
skirmishes across Kashmir’s mountain
passes. The largest part of the territory is
occupied by India, and Pakistanis have
long rallied around the cause of
liberating it. The two principal envoys--
for Pakistan, a college classmate of
Musharraf ’s named Tariq Aziz, and, for
India, a Russia specialist named Satinder
Lambah--were developing what
diplomats refer to as a “non-paper” on
Kashmir, a text without names or signatures
which can serve as a deniable
but detailed basis for a deal.
At the Rawalpindi meetings, Musharraf
drew his generals into a debate
about the fundamental definition of
Pakistan’s national security. “It was no
longer fashionable to think in some of
the old terms,” Khurshid Kasuri, who
was then Foreign Minister, and who attended
the sessions, recalled. “Pakistan
had become a nuclear power. War was
no longer an option for either side.” Kasuri
said to the generals that only by diplomacy
could they achieve their goals
in Kashmir. He told them, he recalled,
“Put your hand here--on your heart--
and tell me that Kashmir will gain freedom”
without such a negotiation with
India.
The generals at the table accepted
this view, Kasuri said. They “trusted
Musharraf,” he continued. “Their raison
d’être is not permanent enmity with
India. Their raison d’être is Pakistan’s
permanent security. And what is security?
Safety of our borders and our economic
development.”
By early 2007, the back-channel talks
on Kashmir had become “so advanced
that we’d come to semicolons,” Kasuri
recalled. A senior Indian official who
was involved agreed. “It was huge--I
think it would have changed the basic
nature of the problem,” he told me. “You
would have then had the freedom to remake
Indo-Pakistani relations.” Aziz
and Lambah were negotiating
the details for a visit to Pakistan by the
Indian Prime Minister during which,
they hoped, the principles underlying
the Kashmir agreement would be announced
and talks aimed at implementation
would be inaugurated. One quarrel,
over a waterway known as Sir Creek,
would be formally settled.
Neither government, however, had
done much to prepare its public for a
breakthrough. In the spring of 2007,
a military aide in Musharraf ’s office contacted
a senior civilian official to ask how
politicians, the media, and the public
might react. “We think we’re close to
a deal,” Musharraf ’s aide said, as this
official recalled it. “Do you think we can
sell it?”
Regrettably, the time did not look
ripe, this official recalled answering. In
early March, Musharraf had invoked his
near-dictatorial powers to fire the chief
justice of the country’s highest court.
That decision set off rock-tossing protests
by lawyers and political activists.
The General’s popularity seemed to be
eroding by the day; he had seized power
in a coup in 1999, and had enjoyed public
support for several years, but now
he was approaching “the point where
he couldn’t sell himself,” the official remembers
saying, never mind a surprise
peace agreement with India.
Kasuri was among the Musharraf
advisers who felt that the Pakistanis
should postpone the summit--that they
“should not waste” the negotiated draft
agreements by revealing them when
Musharraf might not be able to forge
a national consensus. Even if it became
necessary to hold off for months or years,
Kasuri believed, “We had done so much
work that it will not be lost.”
Pakistan’s government sent a message
to India: Manmohan Singh’s visit should
be delayed so that Musharraf could regain
his political balance. India, too, was
facing domestic complications, in the
form of regional elections. In New Delhi,
the word in national-security circles had
been that “any day we’re going
to have an agreement on Kashmir,”
Gurmeet Kanwal, a retired Indian brigadier,
recalled. “But Musharraf lost his
constituencies.”
Rather than recovering, the General
slipped into a political death spiral.
Armed Islamist radicals took control of
the Red Mosque, in Islamabad, and, in
July, Musharraf ordered a commando
raid to expel them. Sensing a political
opening, the country’s two most popular
civilian politicians, Benazir Bhutto
and Nawaz Sharif, whom Musharraf
had forced into exile, agitated to be allowed
to return. By year’s end, public
pressure had forced Musharraf to give
up his Army command. A suicide
bomber murdered Bhutto in a public
park just a month later. Her widower,
Asif Zardari, led their political party to
victory in an election in which voters re
pudiated
Musharraf and his political
allies. In August, 2008, Musharraf resigned
and retired from public life.
In the sixty-one years of their existence,
the governments of India and Pakistan
have periodically funded covert campaigns
of guerrilla or terrorist violence on
each other’s soil; as a result, each now
holds unshakable assumptions about the
other’s proclivity for dirty tricks. In Pakistan,
for example, it is an article of faith
among many senior Army officers that
India’s foreign-intelligence service, the
Research and Analysis Wing, or R.A.W.,
is providing guns and money to ethnic
Baluch and Pashtun groups that operate
along the Afghan border, and who seek
to separate from or overthrow the Pakistani
government. Equally, in India’s
cabinet and parliament, it is taken for
granted that the Pakistan Army leadership
provides aid to jihadi groups so that
they can carry out terrorist attacks on Indian
soil--the latest example being the
band of ten young men who arrived in an
inflatable dinghy at Mumbai’s Badhwar
Park last November 26th.
The Mumbai attackers carried G.P.S.
navigational equipment, a satellite telephone,
cell phones suitable for local
Mumbai networks, grenades, Kalashnikovs,
and 9-millimetre pistols, which they
employed to kill a hundred and sixty-five
people, including six Americans, during
a three-day spree of nihilistic violence.
More than most cells that have turned
up in India in recent years, the terrorists
had production values that seemed inspired
by the September 11th attacks:
they struck at multiple sites
in the heart of India’s financial district
and exploited live television and radio
coverage.
Indian security services managed to
intercept the attackers’ telephone calls,
and discovered that they were speaking
to handlers in Pakistan. The Indians assembled
a dossier, containing excerpts of
these conversations, translated into
English, which they presented to Pakistan,
the United States, and other governments;
one version ran to a hundred
and eighteen pages. In one intercept, the
terrorists rejoice because television anchors
are comparing their work to 9/11.
In tone and rhythm, the excerpts suggest
something of the banality of cellphone-
enabled mass murder:
Caller: Let me talk to Umar.
Receiver: Note a number. Number is
0043720880764.
Caller: Whose number is this?
Receiver: It is mine. The phone is with me.
Caller: … Allah is helping you…. Try to
set the place on fire.
Receiver: We have set fire in four rooms.
Caller: People shall run helter skelter
when they see the flames. Keep throwing a
grenade every fifteen minutes or so. It will
terrorize.
Here, talk to “Baba.”
Caller (2): A lot of policemen and Navy
personnel have covered the entire area. Be
brave!
The dossier leaves little doubt that
the attack originated in Pakistan: a
man using a Pakistani passport paid for
the terrorists’ phone services; their pis-
tols were engraved with a manufacturer’s
address in Peshawar; and numer-ous
provisions recovered from a fishing
trawler that the group used to reach
Mumbai from Karachi were made in
Pakistan.
More specifically, the Indian government’s
dossier concludes that the Mumbai
attack was coördinated by Lashkare-
Taiba, or the Army of the Pure—a
Pakistan-based, Saudi-influenced Islamist
terrorist and guerrilla force that
fights mainly in Kashmir. A decade ago,
Lashkar’s emir, Hafiz Saeed, announced
his intention to destroy India: “We will
not rest until the whole [of ] India is
dissolved into Pakistan.” After the Mumbai
attack, Saeed delivered a public sermon
in Lahore in which he spoke approvingly
of a new “awakening” among
Indian Muslims, and described his coreligionists
as “second to none in taking
revenge.” A satellite-telephone conversation
between one of the Mumbai terrorists
and a supervisor in Pakistan, intercepted
independently by the United
States, also points to Lashkar’s involvement
in the raid.
After many weeks of prevarication,
Pakistani officials conceded that the
Mumbai attackers appear to have come
from their country. Pakistan has detained
and filed criminal charges against
at least one senior Lashkar commander
named in the Indian dossier. But it remains
unclear how far Pakistan will go
to dismantle Lashkar. Since the early
nineteen-nineties, Pakistan’s principal
military-intelligence service, Inter-Services
Intelligence, or I.S.I., has armed
and funded Lashkar to foment upheaval
in Indian-held Kashmir. Although
many of Pakistan’s generals are secular
or apolitically religious, they have sponsored
jihadis as a low-cost means of
keeping India off balance.
The historical ties between Lashkar
and the Pakistani security services are for
the most part undisputed; one book that
describes them, published in 2005 and
entitled “Between Mosque and Military,”
was written by Husain Haqqani,
who is currently Pakistan’s Ambassador
to the United States. However, Brigadier
Nazir Butt, a defense attaché at the Embassy
in Washington, denied that his
government had provided lethal aid to
Lashkar or to other violent groups. “Pakistan
only extended moral and diplomatic
support to the Kashmiri struggle
for self-determination,” he said. “After
9/11, Pakistan withdrew all its support
for Kashmiri organizations and, as a
consequence, drew violent attacks on its
military and national leadership.”
American officials, who rely upon
the I.S.I.’s coöperation in their campaigns
against Al Qaeda and the Taliban
along the Pakistan-Afghanistan
border, continue to say that there is
no evidence that active I.S.I. personnel
participated in or knew in advance about
the Mumbai strike. Yet critical evidence,
such as interrogations conducted in
Pakistan, is effectively under I.S.I. control;
agents from the Federal Bureau of
Investigation, which has jurisdiction in
the matter under U.S. law, because
American citizens were among the victims,
have been denied direct access to
the Lashkar suspects.
It’s also true that Pakistan’s government
has itself been on the receiving end
of jihadi attacks in the past year. “It’s not
as if all this stuff is external and going
into India,” one official from a nato government
said. “They don’t have the capacity
to defend Islamabad and Peshawar.
They’re losing ground.” Taliban-led insurgents
today control large swaths of
territory in Pakistan’s northwest, where
they enforce a brutal regime of Islamic
justice, and recently signed a truce with
the government in the Swat valley. They
have mounted a bombing campaign that
has reached Islamabad; some of the
bombs have been aimed at the Army and
the I.S.I., suggesting a loss of control
by the I.S.I. over its jihadi clients, or
a split within the Pakistani security services,
or both.
In January, Prime Minister Singh remarked
that the Mumbai attack could
not have been carried out without “the
support of some official agencies in Pakistan.”
India nevertheless reacted to the
attack with relative restraint. Singh’s government
has not ordered a major military
mobilization, nor has it launched any retaliatory
strikes against Pakistan. Were it
not for the back-channel talks, the response
might not have been so measured:
Singh and at least some of his civilian
counterparts in Pakistan hope to find
their way back to the non-paper. But this
will be possible only if jihadis don’t provoke
a war first.
Many Indian politicians and security
analysts continue to call for military action.
Some predicted to me that additional
jihadi attacks would take place
during India’s upcoming national election,
in May; if such strikes do occur,
they said, it would be difficult for India’s
democratic government to resist public
calls for retaliation. For now, however,
the decisions belong to Singh, a seventysix-
year-old Cambridge-educated econ-
omist who recently underwent heartbypass
surgery. Singh’s decision-making
appears to be grounded in military realism;
if India were to launch even selective
strikes, it would likely only deepen
Pakistan’s internal turmoil and thus exacerbate
the terrorist threat faced by
India. Any Indian military action would
also risk an escalation that could include
nuclear deployments--which may be
precisely what the jihadi leaders hoped
to provoke. “There is no military option
here,” Lalit Mansingh, a former Indian
Ambassador in Washington, said. India
had to “isolate the terrorist elements” in
Pakistan, he said, not “rally the nation
around them.”
Negotiators involved in the secret
back channel regarded the effort as politically
risky and exceptionally ambitious—
a potential turning point in history,
as one official put it, comparable to
the peace forged between Germany and
France after the Second World War.
At issue, they believed, was not just a settlement
in Kashmir itself but an end to
their debilitating covert wars and, eventually,
their paranoiac mutual suspicions.
They hoped to develop a new
regime of free trade and political coöperation
in the region, from Central Asia to
Bangladesh. On January 8, 2007, at the
height of this optimistic interval, Manmohan
Singh remarked in public, “I
dream of a day, while retaining our respective
national identities, one can have
breakfast in Amritsar, lunch in Lahore,
and dinner in Kabul.”
These hopes, however quixotic, reflected
a competition between two
schools of radical thought: the millenarian
terrorism of jihadi groups and their
supporters; and the less well-known
search by sections of the Indian and
Pakistani élites for a transformational
peace. For both groups, Kashmir is symbolically
and ideologically important. It
is also, still, a territory of grinding,
unfinished war.
Indian paramilitaries had placed Srinagar
under an undeclared curfew
on the morning this winter when I
sought to drive out of the city, which is
the summer capital of India’s Jammu
and Kashmir state. I wanted to visit a
gravedigger in the northern sector of the
Kashmir Valley, about fifteen miles from
the heavily militarized de-facto border
between India and Pakistan known as
the Line of Control.
Soldiers in overcoats and olive helmets
huddled at checkpoints before open
fires; they waved tree branches or batons
to stop cars for inspection. The Indian
troops on occupation duty in Kashmir--
about five hundred thousand soldiers and
paramilitaries--rarely speak the Kashmiri
dialect. Locals resent them, and they
return the attitude. I was travelling with
a Kashmiri journalist, Basharat Peer, who
is the author of a forthcoming book,
“Curfewed Nights,” a coming-of-age
narrative set amid the region’s revolts and
security crackdowns. Basharat’s press credentials
had expired, but he had recently
completed a fellowship at Columbia
University, and he had his library card; at
difficult moments, we thrust it through
the window and shouted “New York!,” as
if it trumped all rules--and, each time,
the soldiers backed off and waved us
through.
We passed north, through rice paddies
and apple orchards--hauntedlooking
rows of barren trees. On the
horizon rose the snowy ridges of Himalayan
foothills. Convoys of troop carriers,
water haulers, military tow trucks,
and jeeps clogged the highway until we
turned down an embankment to the village
of Chahal, a hamlet of perhaps a
hundred tin-roofed houses among terraced
fields beside the Jhelum River.
Kashmiri villagers inhabit a political
space confined by roaming guerrillas on
one side--some of them local boys, some
foreign jihadis from Pakistan--and by
Indian troops on the other. At the top of
a hill, we found the residue of India’s
counter-insurgency campaign: a new
concrete school and clinic, constructed by
India’s government to appease the villagers,
and beside it, encircled by barbed
wire, a field of muddy dunes that held the
unmarked graves of about two hundred
young men whose unidentified bodies
had been delivered for burial by the Indian
Army.
Just under a thousand graves containing
the corpses of unknown young
men have been discovered in Kashmir
so far by investigators from the Association
of Parents of Disappeared Persons,
a small advocacy organization in Srinagar.
Last year, a grenade was tossed at
the house of the lawyer who advises the
group; he and his colleagues have expanded
their field surveys nonetheless.
They believe that the bodies they have
found are among about eight thousand
young men who have gone missing during
the latest round of Kashmir’s wars;
they hypothesize that Indian security
forces detained many of the victims insecret prisons, tortured them, and shot
them. Indian officials reject these allegations;
they have estimated the number
of missing Kashmiri men at about four
thousand, and speculated that they left
for Pakistan for training so that they
could fight against India, only to fall in
combat when they returned.
In a small stone house, I met Atta
Muhammad Khan, a slight man with a
trimmed white beard, who is the guardian
of Chahal’s tombs of unknown rebels. His
work began in the late spring of 2002, he
told me, when a Kashmiri policeman arrived
in the village with a corpse in a truck.
The policeman said that the victim was a
Pakistani-supported militant who had
been shot dead in battle. “They started
bringing bodies every ten days, eight days,
fifteen days, at times twice in one day,”
Khan said.
Villages such as Chahal that are
known to contain such graves have become
magnets for Kashmiri families
who are looking for missing sons. When
family members arrive bearing photographs
or other scraps of evidence, Khan
will exhume bodies for them. The gravedigger
is himself a searcher; his nephew,
whom he raised, disappeared in 2002.
The Kashmir problem has a textbook
quality: a dispute of more than six decades’
duration, involving British colonial
concessions, United Nations resolutions,
and a long record of formal
negotiations. But it is the character of
the war within Kashmir--the torture
centers, the unmarked graves, and the
remorseless violence of the jihadis--that
better describes the contours of Indo-
Pakistani enmity today. In one sense, the
recent back-channel talks, with their
promise of a cleansing peace, have
offered each government a path to evade
responsibility for the evisceration of
Kashmiri villages and families.
India and Pakistan each claims sovereignty
in Kashmir, but neither has found
a way to control the land or its people.
These failures are rooted in what was perhaps
Great Britain’s greatest imperial
crime, the partition of its Indian domain,
which ignited violence that claimed
about a million lives. In 1947, the British
government, bankrupted by the Second
World War, hastily completed a plan to
divide the subcontinent into the newly
independent nations of India and Pakistan.
The status of a few territories proved
difficult to adjudicate. One was the former
princely state of Jammu and Kashmir,
ruled by a Hindu maharaja and
largely inhabited by poor Muslim peasants.
Under Britain’s demographic formula,
territories with Muslim majorities
were supposed to go to Pakistan, but the
maharaja signed an accession agreement
to join India. A year later, Pakistan tried
to wrest away the territory by sending
in a tribal guerrilla force, a gambit that
ended in a military stalemate. In a sense,
the war of guerrilla infiltration that Pakistan
initiated in 1948 has never ended.
In 1972, after their third formal war,
India and Pakistan established the Line
of Control and deployed artillery and
infantry along its length. On the Indian
side lay most of Kashmir, as well as
the Hindu-majority region of Jammu
and the Buddhist-influenced region
of Ladakh. On the Pakistani side lay
a sliver of land now known as Azad
Kashmir and a Himalayan region of
Muslim tribes known as the Northern
Areas. For almost two decades, a relative
calm prevailed, but in late 1989--inspired
by the fall of the Berlin Wall--
Kashmiris on the Indian side, who were
fed up with rigged elections and job discrimination,
staged a mass revolt. The
I.S.I., which had used Islamist militias
during the anti-Soviet campaigns in
Afghanistan, reacted opportunistically,
by arming those Islamist factions of the
rebellion which sought to join Kashmir
to Pakistan.
Initially, when Kashmiri Muslim
boys from villages such as Chahal
sneaked across the Line of Control for
weapons and training, I.S.I. officers encouraged
them to join a local Islamist
guerrilla group known as the Hezbul-
Mujahideen, which was affiliated
with the international networks of the
Muslim Brotherhood. During the late
nineties, however, Pakistan shifted much
of its support to Lashkar-e-Taiba, which
adhered to the Salafi strain of Islamist
thought prevalent in Saudi Arabia, and
later to a jihadi group called Jaish-e-
Mohammed, or the Army of Mohammed.
The membership of these secondwave
groups came not from Kashmir
itself but from the Punjab, Pakistan’s
most populous province, where the
suffering of fellow-Muslims in Kashmir
is routinely exploited by religious and
nationalistic political parties. Lashkar’s
volunteers collaborated with Hezb-ul-
Mujahideen cells, but they weren’t
fighting and dying in Kashmir because
their families had ties to the disputed
land; they were there because they believed
that God had called them to liberate
the region’s Muslims from Hindu
control.
At least fifty thousand people have
died in Kashmir’s violence since 1989.
The pace of the killing has declined
in recent years, but bombings and assassinations
persist. Last August, on the
highway just above Chahal, Indian paramilitaries
shot and killed at least fifteen
unarmed protesters marching toward the
Line of Control; the shooting touched
off yet more street protests. In the satellite-
television age, the suffering of Kashmiri
civilians has not been broadcast as
often or as vividly as that of Palestinians
or Lebanese, but on Al Jazeera and on
Web sites from Britain to Bangladesh
the war has been a major point of grievance.
The Indian government has long
resisted scrutiny of its human-rights record
in Kashmir and deflects blame for
the violence onto Pakistan’s support for
jihadi groups. Special laws shield Indian
security forces from accountability for
deaths in custody, despite ample evidence
that there have been many hundreds
of such cases. Even India’s urban
liberal élite remains in denial about its
government’s record of torture and extrajudicial
killing, Meenakshi Ganguly, a
senior researcher for Human Rights
Watch, said. “In the history books, Kashmir
is going to be where justice completely
failed the promises of Indian democracy,”
she said.
India’s campaign to defeat the jihadis
has, in some ways, become subtler and
more effective. In 2002, the government
held an election in Kashmir, judged locally
as fair, which lured fence-sitting separatist
Kashmiri politicians into greater
coöperation with New Delhi. Last winter,
when I visited, India was concluding
a second successful regional election, in
which Kashmiris turned out in record
numbers. One afternoon, on the eve of
the final round of voting, I visited the
gated home of Mirwaiz Umer Farooq,
one of Kashmir’s best-known nonviolent
separatist leaders. He had been placed
under house arrest, so we spoke by cell
phone as I sat outside his driveway.
Farooq’s coalition, called the Hurriyat,
had decided to boycott the election,
a tactic that now looked like a mistake,
since so many Kashmiris had chosen to
participate. India has spent large sums
on jobs and infrastructure projects, gradually
convincing many war-weary civilians
and politicians that they can regard
regional elections not as a source of sovereign
legitimacy for India but as a
means to control their local affairs. “We
are not in a position to address people’s
concerns about water, electricity, and
jobs,” Farooq admitted.
The back-channel negotiations have
also helped to quell mainstream Kashmiri
separatism. At times secretly and at
other times publicly, Musharraf and
Singh each began discussions with Hurriyat
and other local groups about the
terms of an eventual settlement, drawing
them in. “Musharraf was someone
who was willing to think out of the box,”
Farooq continued. “It is not an insoluble
situation.”
As violence has declined, the government
has closed the worst of its detention
centers. Yet its over-all progress
has only clarified for Indian strategists
the ongoing failure to stop the I.S.I.
from infiltrating jihadi guerrillas across
the Line of Control.
One morning after my visit to Chahal,
I drove up a pine-tree-lined hill
above Srinagar’s Dal Lake, past a manicured
golf course, to Raj Bhavan, a
whitewashed colonial-era estate. I had
come to see N. N. Vohra, a white-haired
career civil ser vant who last
summer was appointed the governor of
Jammu and Kashmir. Imperial histories
and biographies lined the bookshelves
in Vohra’s office; an oil portrait of Mohandas
K. Gandhi hung on the wall beside
his desk. The Governor told me
that “whatever Islamabad may say to the
world, and particularly to American
leadership,” he did not feel that Pakistan
had fully dealt with the I.S.I. and its
“vested interest in keeping this Kashmir
front alive.”
Vohra said that when he first arrived
as governor he received daily briefings
from intelligence officers about interrogation
reports, electronic intercepts, and
other evidence of I.S.I. activity along the
Line of Control. He asked for copies of
the raw intercept recordings so he could
listen himself. What he heard, he said,
was controllers speaking to jihadi commanders
inside Kashmir for “twentyfive,
thirty minutes” at a time. “And they
are very specific, very specific—to go for
this target. . . . They said, ‘Task No. 1:
Eliminate the most senior leaders available.’
And they mentioned some--I
won’t mention the names. And then, ‘B,
go for the larger rallies of the big leaders--
throw grenades, shoot, bombs,
I.E.D.s, whatever.’ . . . And the kinds of
rewards that are mentioned,
rewards that will be given--lifetime, if
you bump off a Grade A leader. If you
injure them, you get three hundred
thousand rupees.”
Vohra had doubts about the Pakistan
very much hoping in the last four years
that they are now progressively seeing
the great wisdom and the enormous
benefit of not spending all their resources
on building up their armies and
their armed forces to deal with India--
and to subvert and infiltrate,” he said.
“There has been a thaw, obviously, quite
visibly. The levels of infiltration have
gone down. But they haven’t given up.
And that’s the worrying part.”
A few days later, I arrived at Wagah,
in the Punjab, the primary official
land border crossing between India and
Pakistan. A winter fog had reduced visibility
to a few yards. Five dozen Tata
trucks loaded with potatoes and other
goods idled in a line facing Pakistan. The
border compound has the look of a government
park; rows of eucalyptus trees
drape manicured lawns. The Indian and
Pakistani militaries coöperate at the
Wagah crossing. On most days, rival
honor guards march and drill on adjoining
parade grounds; on Pakistan’s side,
grandstands have been erected so that
spectators can enjoy the show, which has
grown into a kind of martial battle of
the bands, in which each side strives to
excel in the performance categories of
goose-stepping and glaring. Only very
tall soldiers need apply for duty at
Wagah; each country seeks to conjure
the illusion that its Army is a legion of
giants.
After four cups of tea, several signatures
in clothbound ledgers, and some
subtle talk of gratuities, two porters carried
my bags on their heads to a metal
gate. A protocol officer waited inside
Pakistan; I had an appointment with
Nawaz Sharif, the former Pakistani
Prime Minister, who lived nearby, on a
family compound outside Lahore.
Squads of police guard the Sharif estate,
a walled expanse of orchards, wheat
fields, and pens filled with deer and peacocks.
In the main house, the former
Prime Minister greeted me in a grand
reception chamber flanked by two lifesize
stuffed lions, and decorated with
pink sofas, matching pink Oriental carpets,
and gold-plated antelope figurines.
He is a rotund, clean-shaven man who,
remarkably, retains the youthful look of
a person unburdened by stress.
In 1999, less than a year after he authorized
Pakistan’s nuclear test, Sharif initiated
a precursor to the back-channel talks.
In February of that year, Sharif invited India’s
Prime Minister at the time, Atal Behari
Vajpayee, to attend a summit in Lahore.
The two governments signed a
memorandum of understanding; they also
commissioned secret, exploratory talks by
special emissaries. Sharif designated an
aide, Anwar Zahid, and Vajpayee named
a journalist, R. K. Mishra. “It was basically
on Kashmir,” Sharif recalled. “In the early
days, we were not really having any consensus
on anything. But the mere fact that
the back channel was established was a big
development. It was doing some serious
work.”
At the time, Sharif shared power
uneasily with Musharraf, whom he had
appointed as Chief of Army Staff.
Musharraf “found the Lahore summit
galling,” as Strobe Talbott, who was then
the United States’ Deputy Secretary of
State, put it in a memoir. In these years,
Musharraf, “ like so many of
his fellow officers . . . was a revanchist on
the issue of Kashmir.” Musharraf
apparently decided to break up the
peace talks. He authorized a reckless
incursion of Army personnel disguised
as guerrillas into a mountainous area
of Kashmir known as Kargil. A smallscale
war erupted; at one point, the
Clinton Administration believed that
Pakistan’s Army had taken steps to mobilize
its nuclear weapons. Musharraf
has said that he briefed Sharif on
the Kargil operation; Sharif denied
this. “I think the back channel was making
good progress,” he told me. “But
soon after, you see, it was sabotaged
by Mr. Musharraf--
a misadventure that
was ill-advised, ill-executed, poorly
planned.” A few months afterward,
Sharif tried to fire the General; Musharraf
seized power and threw Sharif in
jail. After President Clinton intervened,
Sharif was released into exile in Saudi
Arabia.
India’s leaders initially mistrusted
Musharraf because he was the author of
Kargil, but gradually, as Mansingh, then
India’s Ambassador to the United States,
recalled, “We found he was a man we
could talk to.” After 2002, India’s economy
began to grow more quickly and
steadily than at any time since independence;
the ranks of its middle-class consumers
swelled; and it became possible
for Indian strategists to visualize their
country rising to become a great power
by the mid-twenty-first century. Only a
catastrophic war with Pakistan--or Pakistan’s
collapse into chaos--would stand
in the way of India’s greatness. “We were
convinced these two countries must learn
to live in accord--must,” Jaswant Singh,
who was then India’s foreign minister,
said.
In time, Musharraf ’s thinking about
India and Kashmir seemed to change,
too. Late in 2003, splinter cells from
Jaish-e-Mohammed twice tried to assassinate
him. “This is what turns him
decisively,” Maleeha Lodhi, then Pakistan’s
high commissioner in London, recalled.
Just weeks afterward, Musharraf
met Vajpayee in Islamabad and agreed to
an unprecedented joint statement: the
Pakistani President would “not permit
any territory under Pakistan’s control to
be used to support terrorism in any manner.”
The two leaders announced new
formal negotiations between their foreign
ministries, which were known as
the Composite Dialogue. Privately, they
re-started the back-channel talks on
Kashmir.
During the next two years, Musharraf
delivered India proof of his sincerity.
Guerrilla infiltrations into Indian-held
territory declined; Pakistani artillery
units stopped their salvos on Indian
posts, which had been used as cover for
infiltrating jihadis. Indian officials concluded
that Musharraf--whether by an
iron hand or by building a consensus--
had persuaded his senior generals to
accept the potential benefits of peace
negotiations.
At the landmark meetings he convened
at Rawalpindi, Musharraf talked
about how a peace settlement might
produce economic benefits that could
strengthen Pakistan--and its military.
The Army had a fifteen-year development
plan; the generals knew that the
plan would be difficult to pay for without
rapid growth. “I was very happy to
see how much focus there was on the
economy among the Army’s officers,”
Khurshid Kasuri, the former Foreign
Minister, recalled.
Mahmud Durrani, a retired major
general who was then Musharraf ’s Ambassador
in Washington, said that this
new attitude reflected a broader change
in outlook. Commanders were asking,
he recalled, “Can my economy support
me? Can my foreign policy support me?
What does the world think of us?”
There was “the feeling that the world
is changing and that we have to change,”
Khalid Mahmood, who was then Kasuri’s
chief of staff, recalled. “It was not
easy. There were people who felt that the
President has made a U-turn.”
To refine the non-paper, Musharraf
relied intuitively on his college
friend Tariq Aziz, a civil servant who
had made his career in Pakistan’s federal
tax department, a bridge enthusiast
who seems to some of his colleagues
to live precariously on tobacco and adrenaline.
Aziz’s Indian counterparts--J. N.
Dixit, Singh’s national-security adviser,
followed by Satinder Lambah--worked
more formally. The Indians typically
brought note-takers to the secret hotel
sessions overseas, whereas Aziz travelled
alone, rarely carried a briefcase, and often
had to scribble his notes on hotel stationery.
Altogether, there were about two
dozen of these hotel sessions between
2004 and early 2007, according to people
familiar with them.
The envoys worked on a number of
long-standing territorial disputes, including
the problem of Siachen, a heavily
militarized glacier where Indian and
Pakistani soldiers skirmish at heights
above twenty thousand feet, battering
each other’s snowbound positions with
artillery shells. But a Kashmir settlement
would be the grand prize.
To outsiders, it has long seemed obvious
that the Line of Control should be
declared the international border between
India and Pakistan--it’s been in
place for almost forty years, and each
country has built its own institutions behind
it. Musharraf, however, made it
clear from the start that this would be
unacceptable; India was equally firm
that it would never renegotiate its borders
or the Line of Control. The way out
of this impasse, Singh has said, was to
“make borders irrelevant,” by allowing
for the free movement of people and
goods within an autonomous Kashmir
region. For Pakistan, this formula might
work if it included provisions for the
protection--and potential enrichment,
through free trade--of the people of
Kashmir, in whose name Pakistan had
carried on the conflict.
The most recent version of the nonpaper,
drafted in early 2007, laid out several
principles for a settlement, according
to people who have seen the draft or
have participated in the discussions
about it. Kashmiris would be given special
rights to move and trade freely on
both sides of the Line of Control. Each
of the former princely state’s distinct regions
would receive a measure of autonomy--
details would be negotiated later.
Providing that violence declined, each
side would gradually withdraw its troops
from the region. At some point, the
Line of Control might be acknowledged
by both governments as an international
border. It is not clear how firm
a commitment on a final border the negotiators
were prepared to make, or how
long it would all take; one person involved
suggested a time line of about ten
to fifteen years.
One of the most difficult issues involved
a plan to establish a joint body,
made up of local Kashmiri leaders, Indians,
and Pakistanis, to oversee issues
that affected populations on both sides
of the Line of Control, such as water
rights. Pakistan sought something close
to shared governance, with the Kashmiris
taking a leading role; India, fearing
a loss of sovereignty, wanted much
less power-sharing. The envoys wrestled
intensively over what language to use to
describe the scope of this new body; the
last draft termed it a “joint mechanism.”
Manmohan Singh’s government
feared that successor Pakistani regimes
would repudiate any Kashmir bargain
forged by Musharraf, who had, after all,
come to power in a coup. The Indians
were not sure that a provisional peace
deal could be protected “from the men
of violence--on both sides,” the senior
Indian official who was involved recalled.
And they wondered whether the Pakistan
Army had really embraced the nonpaper
framework or merely saw the talks
as a ploy to buy time and win favor
in Washington while continuing to support
the jihadis. “I remember asking
Tariq Aziz, ‘Is the Army on board? Right
now?’ ” the senior official recalled. “As
long as Musharraf was the chief, had the
uniform, I think he had a valid answer.
He said, ‘Yes, the chief is doing this.’ ”
As the peace talks stalled and Musharraf’s power waned during the
first half of 2008, the I.S.I., or sections
of it, appeared to be reënlisting jihadi
groups. On July 7th, a suicide bomber
rammed a car loaded with explosives
into the gates of India’s Embassy in
Kabul, killing fifty-four people, including
the Indian defense attaché. The
United States intercepted communications
between active I.S.I. personnel
and the Taliban-aligned network
of Jalaluddin Haqqani, which is believed
by U.S. military and intelligence
officials to have carried out the Kabul
Embassy attack. Haqqani has a long
history of collaboration and contact
with the I.S.I.; he was also a paid client
of the Central Intelligence Agency
during the late nineteen-eighties. On
September 4th, less than three weeks
after Musharraf ’s resignation as Pakistan’s
President, Kashmiri militant
groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba, appeared
at a large open rally in Muzaffarabad,
the capital of Pakistan-held
Kashmir; the Pakistan Army has a
heavy presence in this city, and it is unlikely
that such an event could have
taken place without the I.S.I.’s sanction.
The rally seemed designed to send
a message across the Line of Control:
Musharraf is gone, but the Kashmir
war is alive.
“We asked them specifically, ‘How is
all this going on if you say the Army’s on
board?’ ” the senior Indian official recalled.
“They kept saying, ‘Give us a
chance. We need time. Yes, yes, the Army’s
on board.’ ”
In October, Durrani, who was then
Pakistan’s national-security adviser, travelled
to New Delhi and met with members
of India’s National Security
Advisory Board. Indian Army officers
presented “some very nice colored
charts,” as Durrani put it, documenting
recent increases in ceasefire violations
and jihadi infiltrations along the Line of
Control. Durrani found the charts “a bit
one-sided,” but when he returned to Islamabad
he sought explanations about
the violations from Pakistan Army commanders.
In January, Durrani was fired
after making public statements that
were seen in Pakistan as too accommo-
dating of India.
The apparent revival of the I.S.I.’s covert
operations influenced the Singh
government’s assessment of who was
likely responsible for the Mumbai attack.
“It appears there has been a change
in policy,” V. P. Malik, a former Indian
Chief of Army Staff, who now heads an
influential security-studies institute in
New Delhi, said. “They really have not
taken action against these outfits, their
leaders and their infrastructure.”
Pakistan’s new civilian President, Asif
Zardari, had entered into his own struggle
with those in the Pakistani security
services who favor the jihadis and covert
war against India. Zardari’s Pakistan
Peoples Party has fought the Army for
power since the late nineteen-seventies;
neither institution fully trusts the other,
although they have sometimes collaborated.
(Some P.P.P. officials believe that
the I.S.I. may have been involved in
Benazir Bhutto’s murder.) Last May,
Zardari tried to assert civilian control
over the I.S.I. by placing it under the authority
of the Interior Ministry; the
Army rejected this order, and Zardari
backed down. In November, speaking
extemporaneously by video at a conference
in New Delhi, Zardari declared
that Pakistan might be willing to follow
a policy of “no first use” of its nuclear
weapons, a remarkable departure from
past Pakistan Army doctrine. Privately,
in discussions with Indian officials,
Zardari affirmed his interest in picking
up the back-channel negotiations. Some
Indian officials and analysts interpreted
Mumbai as a kind of warning from the
I.S.I. to Zardari—“Zardari’s Kargil,” as
some Indians put it, meaning that it was
a deliberate effort by the Pakistan Army
to disrupt Zardari’s peace overtures.
Several Pakistani and American officials
told me that Zardari is now deeply worried
about his personal security.
The regional headquarters of Jamaatud-
Dawa--the educational and
charitable organization that, depending
on how you see it, is either the parent of
or a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba--lies on
a flat stretch of agricultural land west of
Lahore, outside a village called Muridke.
Barbed-wire fences surround a
campus of about seventy-five acres,
which contains an Olympic-size swimming
pool, horse stables, offices, several
schools, dormitories, and a large whitewashed
mosque. When I visited, a
smoky haze had shrouded the facility in
a yellowish murk. The chief administrator,
Mohammed Abbas, who is also
known as Abu Ehsaan, greeted me.
Abbas, who is thirty-five years old, has a
substantial belly and a four-inch black
beard. He showed me inside, to a carpeted
room, where we sat cross-legged
on the floor, propped against cushions.
The United States listed Jamaat-ud-
Dawa--the name roughly translates as
the Society of the Call to Islam--as a
foreign terrorist organization in 2006,
on the ground that it was an alias for
Lashkar. After the Mumbai attack, the
United Nations Security Council followed
suit, with tacit support from Pakistan’s
civilian government. Abbas told
me that these judgments were mistaken,
and that Jamaat-ud-Dawa “is solely a
relief organization.”
He explained that young men often
joined the organization as relief workers,
and were sent out for a year or more to
areas that had been struck by earthquakes
or other disasters. These volunteers
might also reside at Muridke,
where they can receive lodging, food,
and pocket money, he said. If they later
marry or move into administration, they
might qualify for a modest salary.
Among the group’s projects, he said,
“We’ve set up an emergency cell for accidents
on the G.T. Road”--the principal
highway that traverses Pakistan.
“People call us and we send the ambulance
to the scene. We also work in collaboration
with the local district administration.
They’re happy with our work.
They think we’re honest--they know
that if we pick up victims they will get
back all of their valuables when they are
released from the hospital.”
As we spoke, several full-bearded men
spread a plastic mat atop the carpeting
and laid out a meal of chicken biryani
and naan. Abbas excused himself briefly
to answer his cell phone; its ring tone was
the sound of a frog croaking.
I asked Abbas if his organization had
come under pressure from the government
of Pakistan since the Mumbai attack.
“The police came the night the organization
was banned, but the schools
and campus were already closed because
of vacations,” he said. “It is not clear yet
whether the schools will be able to reopen.
The hospital is functional, but people
are afraid. The number of patients has
declined because people are afraid India
may hit this Muridke complex.
“No doubt we are afraid,” he contin-
ued. “Hundreds of workers have been arrested
and shifted to unknown places.
Top leaders have been placed under house
arrest. . . . If they come and they want to
arrest me, I am ready. But what is the
charge sheet? The U.S. should tell--the
U.N. should tell--what Jamaat-ud-Dawa
has done.”
President Zardari announced that he
would ban Jamaat, as required by the
U.N. resolution. The Pakistani government
plans to close Jamaat’s schools and
to place provincial administrators at
each of the charity’s facilities to oversee
finances and personnel. However, Pakistan
has a long record of implementing
such crackdowns only partially, and
of releasing jihadi leaders after relatively
short periods--an approach to counterterrorism
that is referred to in India as
“catch and release.” Pakistan banned
Lashkar in 2002, for example, but its
leader, Saeed, continued to preach
openly. Indian officials point out that Jamaat’s
Web site continued to operate
long after Pakistan had declared the latest
ban, and they claim that Lashkar
and Jamaat have now reorganized themselves
under various new names.
Abbas took me on a walk around the
campus. We chatted with a few young
men who said that they were students
at Jamaat’s university. Lashkar educates
thousands annually in a Wahhabiinfluenced
strain of Islam that, in addition
to its political doctrine of transnational
jihad, emphasizes austere personal
devotion. (Pakistan’s traditional religious
culture has been influenced by the veneration
of earthly Sufi saints.) Evangelizing
students form the core of Lashkar’s
membership and its strength—like
Hezbollah, the young men in Jamaat
dormitories and “humanitarian” camps
can offer social services and a vision of
ethical governance in a country that enjoys
a paucity of both.
Down a dirt road shaded by eucalyptus
trees, we found Jamaat’s hospital,
where half a dozen villagers squatted on
the pavement, waiting for appointments.
Inside we toured a gynecological clinic
and a dentist’s office--the fee schedule
posted on the wall indicated that a full
dental exam would cost about fifty cents.
A blue police truck had parked in
front of the headquarters building by
the time we returned. “This happened all
of a sudden,” Abbas said unhappily. Had
my presence been detected, and the police
been dispatched to make a show of
their vigilance, or was this a genuine inspection?
We shook hands and said our
farewells beside the police vehicle. On
its side, stencilled in English
in white
block letters, were the words “Crime Forensic
Laboratory.”
A few minutes later, on the G.T.
Road, headed back to Lahore, I passed
some Urdu-language graffiti painted
prominently in white on a brick wall.
“Under the banner of preaching and
jihad,” the scrawl declared, “Lashkar’s
caravan will roll on.”
Last December, during an appearance
on “Meet the Press,” Barack Obama
remarked, “We can’t continue to look at
Afghanistan in isolation. We have to see
it as part of a regional problem that includes
Pakistan, includes India, includes
Kashmir, includes Iran.” The President
has appointed the veteran diplomat
Richard Holbrooke as a special representative
for Pakistan and Afghanistan. The
public description of Holbrooke’s responsibilities
has been carefully worded
to avoid explicit mention of Kashmir, because
India’s government has long rejected
outside mediation of that conflict,
but, given his mission, Holbrooke will inevitably
be drawn into quiet talks about
the achievements and frustrations of the
back channel.
The Indo-Pakistani equation is critical,
in any event, to the outcome of the
war in Afghanistan, which Obama has
identified as one of his highest foreignpolicy
priorities. Stability in Afghanistan
will be difficult to achieve unless Paki-
stan coöperates more wholeheartedly in
American-led efforts to pacify the Taliban.
The I.S.I. built up the Taliban as a
national Afghan movement during the
nineteen-nineties, partly as a means to
prevent India from gaining influence in
Afghanistan. Pakistan’s generals are unlikely
to dismantle the Taliban leadership
if they continue to regard jihadi groups as
a necessary instrument in an existential
struggle with India. “As far as the Pakistan
Army is concerned, they think India
is trying to weaken Pakistan,” Muhammad
Nasir Akhtar, a retired three-star
general, said. “They also think America is
working with India to denuclearize Pakistan.”
This mind-set, he added, “is very
dangerous for the future.”
The Mumbai attack took place during
the transition between the Bush
and Obama Administrations, and the
United States concentrated its diplomatic
efforts on preventing any armed
conflict between India and Pakistan.
There were several close calls. Less than
seventy-two hours after the attack began,
someone pretending to be India’s foreign
minister telephoned Zardari and threatened
war; only when former Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice intervened did
it become apparent that the call was a
hoax. The caller has not been identified;
like the Mumbai strike itself, the phony
threat may have been a deliberate provocation
by jihadi-aligned conspirators.
The danger of open war between India and Pakistan has not passed. As recently
as December 26th, Pakistani intelligence
officials concluded that Indian warplanes
were being positioned for an air raid. The
country’s national-security adviser at the
time, Durrani, telephoned American
officials in alarm. The next day, Stephen
Hadley, then the national-security adviser,
tracked down Durrani on his cell
phone while he was shopping in an Islamabad
supermarket and told him that
there would be no raid.
During the Bush Administration,
American and British officials monitored
the secret negotiations. British
officials contributed a few ideas based on
their experience with the Good Friday
agreement in Northern Ireland, but neither
they nor the Americans became directly
involved. Ultimately, any peace settlement
between India and Pakistan
would have to attract support in both
countries’ parliaments; if it were seen as
a product of American or British meddling,
its prospects would be dim. “One
of the best pieces of advice we gave the
State Department when I was in Delhi--
and I remember writing about four cables
on this subject--was to keep hands
off,” Ashley Tellis, a former political adviser
in the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi,
recalled. “We stayed away, and unless the
Obama-ites choose to change this I
doubt we will intervene. They’ve managed
quite well without us--they’ve
ended up in a place we’d like to see them
end up.” Direct negotiations, without
mediators, had forced the two sides to
confront the hard issues, the senior Indian
official told me. “Ultimately, we
need to screw up our courage and do the
deal, and anybody else getting involved
actually gives both of us a crutch,” the
official said. “We grandstand.”
On the fundamental problem of the
Pakistan Army’s support for jihadi
groups, however, only the United States
has the leverage, through its militaryand
economic-assistance packages, to
insist upon changes. Unless the Pakistan
Army makes a true break with its jihadi
Clients--and comes to regard these
groups as a greater threat than India--
not even the most creative diplomats in
the region are likely to succeed. “The
time to act--to control the Pakistan
Army and get the civilians together--is
now,” Brajesh Mishra, a former Indian
national-security adviser, told me. “I
have no doubt in my mind that unless
the Pakistan Army is forced to do something
about the jihadis it will lead to a
military confrontation” with India, and
perhaps very soon, he said.
Since November, India has employed
a diplomatic and media campaign to
induce the international community--
the United States, in particular--to put
greater pressure on the Pakistan Army to
break its ties with jihadi groups. India and
the United States have grown closer in recent
years, but Indian officials still see the
U.S. as far too willing to accept excuses
from Pakistan’s generals. “The Pakistanis
have been able to play the Americans,”
C. Uday Bhaskar, a retired Indian Navy
commodore, said. “I wouldn’t abandon
them--that would only make the problem
worse. . . . The Pakistan Army will
have to self-correct. That is the only way--
short of total war.”
In the face of Indian complaints,
American officials have sometimes taken
a protective posture toward the I.S.I. and
the Pakistan Army. Pakistan’s generals
have become adept at pursuing both
peace talks and covert war simultaneously,
and at telling American interlocutors
what they wish to hear. After September
11th, in particular, the Bush
Administration did little to challenge the
dualities in Pakistan’s policies. Bush’s
counter-terrorism advisers decided that
Kashmir-focussed jihadi groups posed
no direct threat to the U.S. The Administration
delivered close to ten billion
dollars’ worth of military aid to Pakistan,
ostensibly to fight Al Qaeda, without
real oversight and without requiring that
the I.S.I. break with regional Islamist
groups. “On Al Qaeda, there was nothing
we asked them to do that they
wouldn’t do,” Bob Grenier, who was the
C.I.A.’s station chief in Islamabad during
2001 and 2002, recalled. As for
groups such as Lashkar, “There was a tremendous
amount of ambivalence.” I.S.I.
leaders seemed “concerned about backlash”
if they cracked down too hard on
the Kashmir groups, Grenier said.
Last fall, General David Petraeus, a
specialist in counter-insurgency doctrine,
was promoted to head the United
States Central Command, which oversees
American military operations and
policies in the Middle East, and in Afghanistan
and Pakistan. (India falls under
the Pacific Command, thereby complicating
efforts to coördinate U.S. military
liaisons in the region.) Petraeus has organized
a group of about two hundred
government, academic, and military specialists
to rethink U.S. strategy in his area
of responsibility. Their study has highlighted
the importance of changing the
strategic outlook of Pakistani generals
toward India, according to military
officers involved in the review. Already,
Petraeus has started to expound his “big
idea” about U.S. military strategy toward
Pakistan: that the Pakistan Army must
be convinced that it faces no existential
threat from India but does face a revolutionary
threat from jihadis within its
borders--and so should shift its emphasis
from planning and equipping itself
for war with India to eliminating homegrown
jihadis.
Admiral Mike Mullen became chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in October,
2007, and since then he has held
eight meetings with the Pakistan Army
chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, as well as
three or four meetings with General
Ahmad Pasha, who was appointed by
Kayani to lead the I.S.I. last autumn.
Kayani participated in the back-channel
talks while serving as Musharraf ’s I.S.I.
chief; in that role, he endorsed the principles
in the non-paper. Both Pakistani
commanders have promised a new strategic
direction. In January, Pasha told
Der Spiegel, “We are distancing ourselves
from conflict with India, both
now and in general.” He added, “We
may be crazy in Pakistan, but not completely
out of our minds. We know full
well that terror is our enemy, not India.”
Mullen told me that he has heard the
same from Kayani and Pasha in private.
Their shift in outlook “has been transformational,”
Mullen said. The Pakistan
Army is “certainly committed,” and yet,
Mullen said, “It’s going to take a while,
and it’s an urgent, urgent situation,
where lives are at stake.”
The Obama Administration has initiated
a sixty-day review of policy toward
Pakistan and Afghanistan; as it completes
that study, the Administration will
have to decide how much patience with
the Pakistan Army it can afford. The
most difficult challenge will be finding
the right blend of encouragement and
pressure to induce the Pakistan Army
and the I.S.I. to conclude that an overarching
and long-lasting regional peace
is in their interest. Not all American
officials possess even Mullen’s qualified
optimism. “History shows that the Pakistanis
will slow-roll us to death,” a
senior U.S. intelligence official told me,
referring to Pakistan’s long record of tolerance
for jihadi groups. “The history is
so compelling--that the Pakistanis play
around and nothing ever changes.”
Zardari and Singh may not find it
easy to return to the non-paper negotiations
on Kashmir any time soon,
even if they wish to. In Pakistan, civilian
political leaders might well reject the
earlier framework simply because the
discredited Musharraf was behind it.
Even more daunting, the violent contest
for power and legitimacy between Taliban
militants and Pakistan’s government
is in many ways a struggle over Pakistan’s
national identity--and, particularly, over
whether the present government is righteously
Islamic enough. In the midst of
such a contest, any agreement that made
concessions to India would be harder
than ever to sell to the Pakistani public.
“The military is completely on board at
the top levels--with a paradigm shift, to
see India as an opportunity, to change
domestic attitudes,” a senior Pakistani
official told me. However, he continued,
“The public mood is out of synch.” The
mood within sections of the Army and
the I.S.I. may be out of synch with peace
negotiations as well; in early February,
the Kashmiri jihadi group Hezb-ul-
Mujahideen hosted a public conference
in Muzaffarabad,
which Lashkar supporters
attended.
In India, Manmohan Singh seems
determined to seek reëlection on a peaceand-
stability platform. Last year, before
Mumbai, Singh took steps to reconnect
the back channel with Tariq Aziz, according
to people familiar with the diplomacy.
Singh was concerned, in particular,
about whether Zardari would be
willing to continue the talks and whether
Pakistan would stand by the non-paper,
or insist on renegotiating.
Pervez Musharraf arrived in the United
States in January for a speaking tour. It
was not a particularly high-profile itinerary;
he spoke first to the World Affairs
Council of Western Michigan, and later
at Stanford University and the World
Affairs Council of Philadelphia. On his
last evening in the country, he attended a
reception hosted by the Middle East Institute,
a public-policy group with headquarters
in an Edwardian row house near
Dupont Circle, in Washington, D.C. Two
men with crewcuts and earpieces stood
outside the door; a private security guard
with a metal detector checked the guests.
Several dozen people sipped red wine in a
high-ceilinged room: former American
Ambassadors to Pakistan, lobbyists, and
representatives of some of the defense
contractors who did big business in the
Musharraf era, such as Lockheed Martin,
Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman. The
guest of honor turned up about five minutes
late, in a black S.U.V. with flashing
emergency lights.
Musharraf looked well, in a tailored
dark suit and red tie. He circulated
among the crowd and engaged in small
talk about the weather, inflected with
nostalgia from his time in office--yes,
Michigan was very cold, but nothing
like the time he stepped onto an airport
tarmac in Kazakhstan, when the temperature
was minus thirty-six degrees. I
asked him about the almost-deal he had
made on Kashmir in 2007. I said that I
had been surprised to discover how
close his negotiators had been to drawing
to an end one of the great territorial
conflicts of the age.
“I’ve always believed in peace between
India and Pakistan,” he replied. “But it
required boldness on both sides. . . . What
I find lacking sometimes is this boldness--
particularly on the Indian side.”
He then reviewed a long negotiating session
he had had, many years before, with
former Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee,
in which the pair had tried and failed to
agree on a particular joint statement. As
he recounted the incident, the pitch of
Musharraf ’s voice rose slightly; he
seemed to be reliving his frustration.
He returned to the subject of the
2007 talks. “I wasn’t just giving concessions--
I was taking from India as well,”
he said, a touch defensively. Then he
calmed. He fixed his gaze and added, “It
would have benefitted both India and
Pakistan.