Is the Nuclear Test Ban Verifiable?

Jeffrey Lewis, director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative, moderated a panel discussion featuring Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC) Senior Researcher Andreas Persbo, the Arms Control Association’s Senior Technical Advisor David Hafemeister, and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Nonproliferation Associate James Acton on the verifiability of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Both President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have committed to the ratification of the CTBT "as soon as practicable," and all panelists agreed that the technical and political aspects of verification will be a key issue to the prospect of the treaty's ratification.

Persbo described the sights and sounds of the September 2008 on-site inspection (OSI) field exercise in Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan. (Click here to download Persbo’s presentation). Though based on a faux scenario, the test was conducted with realistic conditions in order to simulate a situation as close to an actual on-site inspection as possible. The simulation tested most functions of the CTBT’s on-site inspection mechanisms. Persbo expressed confidence in OSI capabilities, remarking that the process will likely improve with additional U.S. technical assistance in the future.

Hafemeister echoed similar assurance in the CTBT’s International Monitoring System (IMS), arguing that Congressmen should cast their vote for the CTBT on the basis of a net benefit analysis of the treaty's value to the U.S. Emphasizing that the debate about CTBT ratification is mainly a political discussion, Hafemeister encouraged rigorous Congressional hearings on the technical aspects of the CTBT in order to prove the treaty's effective verifiability. Hafemeister’s presentation can be downloaded here.

Acton shared his observations on the CTBT's verification regime compared to other arms control verification systems, such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). He cited that one of the biggest "selling points” of the CTBT is its verification regime, which unlike other treaties’ verification mechanisms, specifies the physical location of inspection. This mandate, coupled with the independent technological detection capabilities of various countries, builds a very powerful detection tool.

A video of the event is available at right, while an MP3 audio recording can be downloaded below.

Participants

Featured Speakers
Andreas Persbo
Senior Researcher
Verfication Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC)

Dave Hafemeister
Senior Technical Advisor
Arms Control Association
Former lead technical-staff on nuclear testing, Department of State

James Acton
Associate, Nonproliferation Program
Carnegie Endowment for National Peace

Moderator
Jeffrey Lewis
Director, Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative
New America Foundation