The Myth of Nuclear Deterrence

On Thursday the New America Foundation hosted Ward Wilson, winner of the 2008 Doreen and Jim McElvany Nonproliferation Challenge, to examine the underpinnings of nuclear deterrence theory. Joined by Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative, Wilson challenged the belief that nuclear weapons continue to serve a useful purpose in the world. An MP3 audio recording can be downloaded below, while video is available at right.

Wilson's argument framed nuclear weapons in the context of means and ends, with the intention of demonstrating that they serve no justifiable end. Nuclear deterrence is the belief that states can protect themselves by credibly threatening to impose unacceptable costs on an adversary in the event of an attack. Those unacceptable costs typically entail the wholesale slaughter of an adversary?s population centers (counterforce) using nuclear weapons. Wilson challenged this fundamental component of nuclear deterrence- the efficacy of city-destruction- by examining roughly analogous historical examples, as well as the only true case studies, Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Wilson concluded that in the past city destruction has failed to bring about the end of conflict, or deter future groups from providing resistance. In particular he argues that the Japanese, understandably, did not distinguish between the "rain drop" of Hiroshima amidst the downpour that was the U.S. strategic bombing campaign of 1945. Combining this with the belief that nuclear weapons serve no military function that cannot be achieved with conventional weapons, Wilson determines that there is no place for nuclear weapons in the world. Like chemical and biological weapons, nuclear weapons are useless, and should likewise be banned.

-Nick Calluzzo, Research Intern for the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative

Participants

• Ward Wilson
  Scholar
  Rethinking Nuclear Weapons

• Jeffrey Lewis
  Director, Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative, New America Foundation
  Publisher, ArmsControlWonk.com

Related Links

• Ward Wilson's PowerPoint Presentation