Subprime

The announcement yesterday of new procedures for streamlined modifications of primarily prime mortgage loans in trouble was a perfect example of a good (albeit overdue) program being drowned by a really inept rollout.

Briefly, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, their conservator the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the Hope Now Alliance and a group of large banks announced standard procedures to do quick modifications-involving primarily an appraisal and verification of income-of seriously delinquent loans in either Fannie or Freddie MBS, or in the portfolios of either the GSEs or the banks. There are clear limits on what is involved. The big one is these are largely prime loans, and loans for which the servicer has relatively undivided loyalties. They are not the privately-securitized sub-prime and Alt-A loans that have caused the bulk of the problem to date, especially in lower income communities. That's a big limitation, but the fact is that the prime foreclosure rate is increasing steadily. And as of June 2008, there were about 373,000 Fannie and Freddie owned or guaranteed loans (many of them prime) that were seriously delinquent, and the number was climbing fast. That's Fannie and Freddie alone, not counting loans held in bank portfolios.

I think it is pretty safe to say that we can stop calling it the subprime mortgage crisis. I went to an event at the Hudson Institute this week with this title. Robert Edelstein from UC Berkeley had a good presentation which provided an informative review of the issues but the dramatic events of this week were making understanding the crumbling system more of an historic exercise. Many of the actors in the play were already being played by understudies and the script was being rewritten on the fly.

What I said is that they were adequately capitalized. And they were adequately capitalized according to the law on June 30th.
-James Lockhart, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director (September 8, 2008)

This was not the case according to Morgan Stanley, which was pulled in by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to analyze the health of Fannie and Freddie in early August.

After the Fannie and Freddie bailout, many law makers will try to create independent oversight over these large Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs). But Morgan Stanley reported that a bailout would cost upwards of $50bn, while William Poole estimated it may be as high as $300bn. Furthermore, the bailout will not turn around falling house prices, which are more the result of a massive price correction and not of the price of mortgages.

Senior executives from the world's largest investment banks recently released a report suggesting new regulations of global credit markets. On Wall Street, there is a widespread loss of faith that the financial system can adequately assess and price risk. The report proposes stringent standards within banks for reporting the value of complex securities on balance sheets and recommends the creation of a market clearinghouse to allow quick exchange and valuation of such investments.

Snapshot asks, are these regulations cosmetic and an attempt to fend of heavy government regulation?

Financial Times - US banks urge sweeping credit market reform
Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group - Official Report

On Wednesday, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation pledged to invest $945 million in a plan by Barclay's to raise almost $9 billion in fresh capital. This follows a $1.2 billion investment Mizuho Financial Group made in Merrill Lynch in January.

In contrast to most developed world banks, which have been relegated to life-support by immense subprime losses, Japanese banks emerged almost unscathed by subprime debt. Along with various sovereign wealth funds, Japanese banks appear poised to become major investors in distressed Western financial institutions.

Snapshot asks, will Japanese investment be seen as less threatening than investment from the Gulf and China?

Sky News - Barclays Outlines £4.5bn Cash Injection
The Economist - Japanese banks: On the prowl again
AFP - Moody's upgrades Japan's debt rating
Mondo Visione - Japan's FSA Publishes English Translations of the Banking Act

A curious piece ran today on the Washington Post's opinion page.  

President of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference Charles Steele Jr. wrote an article called the "The Color of Credit" which noted the racial disaprity of wealth in America. Good, that's a fact that needs some more attention. It highlights the history of housing discrimination, policy efforts to address it, and the rise in minority homeownership rates since the mid-90s. Fine, that's a story worth knowing. It then discusses how recent declines in the housing and mortgages market will erode these gains. Great, that's an essential perspective to have right now, especially as we think about crafting future policy interventions. It takes issue with proposed restrictions on credit providers that would cap their fees. Wait a minute, what's going on here?

Three of the largest U.S. investment banks, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs, had their credit ratings lowered by S&P on the concern that further writedowns lay ahead. Since the beginning of 2007, banks worldwide have written down some $387 billion and raised over $270 billion in new capital. Commercial banks also had a turbulent day with Wachovia's Chief Executive Ken Thompson ousted and Washington Mutual's Kerry Killinger stepping down from his position as chairman (he will retain his position as the CEO).

Snapshot asks, do you agree with the ratings agencies that financial institutions will face further trouble in 2008? Will it be less, more, or equal to trouble they faced in the past few months?

Housing prices continued their downward slide in April with a monthly decrease of 2.2%, a decline of 14.4% from last year's levels. In an unexpected twist, monthly home sales actually rose by 3.3%. Some optimists see this as an indication that the market is nearing its bottom and beginning to work its way through a massive glut of unsold homes as sellers cut their overvalued asking prices and buyers open their wallets to bargains. Others point to worsening consumer confidence and tighter lending requirements as evidence that April's sales figures were a statistical blip in a market that has much further to fall.

Snapshot asks, to what degree will further credit turmoil stop buyers from clearing the housing market?

Wall Street Journal - Home Sales Rise in Hard-Hit Areas
Bloomberg.com - U.S. Home-Price Index Fell 14.4% in March
Washington Post - Existing Home Sales Rise as Prices Plummet
New York Times - Home sales post unexpected April increase
Yahoo News - Home sales unexpectedly rise in April

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair has struck again-with yet another creative response to the ongoing mortgage crisis. Chairman Bair has a history of being ahead of just about everyone else in Washington with proposals to respond to the crisis in a manner that is doable and fair. This time it's the Home Ownership Preservation or HOP loan, and the FDIC estimates about one million loans-make that one million homeowners in trouble-might be eligible.

A proposal by Gordon Brown's government to up the taxes paid by resident foreigners and demand greater transparency in their offshore dealings has many fearing an exodus of London's international financiers. This comes at a time when increasing numbers of businesses in London are also moving their headquarters to countries with lower taxes. Layoffs by banks in the wake of the subprime crisis are further damaging the City's reputation as a vibrant financial center. A loss of foreign residents and international business would be devastating for a city that has emerged as New York's greatest rival for global preeminence.

Snapshot asks, could New York reclaim the top spot if London falls?