Middle East

Oil revenues of OPEC countries were nearly as much in the first half of 2008 as in the entire year of 2007. Oil revenue for January through June 2008 totaled $645bn and this year's total transfer from oil importers to exporters is forecast to be $1.5 trillion. Despite the recent drop in oil prices, revenues are expected to remain high given greater demand at lower prices. Oil prices continue to fall and have reached $115 per barrel.

Snapshot asks, has the recent price adjustment in crude taken oil exporters to a medium term "sweet spot" of high demand, high prices, and soaring revenues?

Financial Times - OPEC income hits record as oil prices soar
Daniel Yergin - Testimony before US Congress Joint Economic Committee
Financial Times - Price unlikely to spike soon, says Greenspan

The Council on Foreign Relations (07/24) cites Peter Bergen on a possible future defeat of Al Qaeda.
CBS News (07/23) interviews Daniel Levy on Barack Obama's trip to the Middle East.
UN Dispatch (07/23) includes Steve Clemons in a panel discussion on terrorism and the next president.
Kansas City Star (07/20) quotes Peter Bergen on the dangers posed by madrassa education.

PRWeb (07/23) quotes Peter Bergen in a critique of Egypt's government.
National Interest (07/23) features Flynt Leverett discussing the need for engagement with Iran.
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (07/22) cites Steve Clemons on growing institutionalization of the ‘08 election.
Washington Post (0720) quotes Flynt Leverett on the Bush Administration's talks with Iran.
Politico (07/18) responds to Steve Clemons' criticisms of Obama's Brussels oversight.
Israel National News (07/16) cites Flynt Leverett on the collapse of the U.S. economy vis-à-vis the Middle East.

Assessing the latest round of talks with Iran, it's clear that the old strategy of "surrender first, then we negotiate," has failed. In ASP's latest video op-ed, Senior Fellow Flynt Leverett says now it is up to Undersecretary William Burns to see if "pre-negotiations" or talks about talks, can sketch out a viable, durable and comprehensive platform for a new U.S.-Iran relationship.

Nahr al-Bared, the devastated Palestinian refugee camp north of Beirut where the Lebanese army battled Fatah al-Islam last summer (photo by Brian Till)

Last night, following a concert at the Roman Amphitheatre in Amman, Jordan, six musicians were attacked by a sole gunman as they boarded their bus. The AP identified the gunman as Palestinian refugee Thaer Weheidi, a 19 year old resident of the Baqaa refugee camp. None were killed, though Weheidi, who turned his weapon upon himself after being chased by police, is said to be in critical condition.

While the Jordanian government holds the act was criminally motivated and not terrorist related, CNN has reported claims that the attacker yelled "Allahu Akbar" before firing on the bus.

The incident adds a new dimension to an ongoing and possibly blossoming battle. Palestinian refugees have long been a bastion of instability in the region, but of late their activity appears to be festering, rather than waning.

I'm still looking for what is new and more sophisticated about Barack Obama's New York Times opinion article, My Plan For Iraq. Maybe the answer is that there is little new here, except for the news hook provided by the Maliki government.

Steve Clemons has a good overall assessment of the article at The Washington Note. I'm going to focus on a few items I think are essential that I want Senator Obama to address.

The overall problem I see with this statement of Iraq policy is that it is too focused on the troop issue, not enough on the twisted politics of the Persian Gulf. Clausewitz is still right: war is the extension of politics by other means. In order to really get the troops out of Iraq, the next president will have to fundamentally change the politics of Iraq and of the region. I just do not see Senator Obama really willing to go there, publicly. That is why his plan requires such a potentially large follow-on force.

Terrorism could be considered the most hateful act there is; purposefully injuring and killing innocent civilians to achieve a far-fetched political goal. The United States and most of the world have decisively taken a strong stance against terrorists without exception. Israel may be the most heavy-handed in doling out punishments; a deadly rampage by a Palestinian man in a bulldozer warranted plans to destroy the house he shared with twenty other people, in addition to the fact that he was killed on the spot.

Yet for all the quick punishments and no-nonsense retaliations there is little, if any, proof that extremism and terrorist acts world-wide have declined in recent years. Terrorism expert Peter Bergen argues that extremist attacks have risen. Maybe we should be looking for alternative, or complementary, approaches in tackling extremism. Saudi Arabia has a new and intriguing one that may be worth noting: rehabilitation.

Khaleej Times (06/30) features Parag Khanna's analysis of the UAE as a regional power in the Middle East.
The Washington Independent (06/30) quotes Peter Bergen on Al Qaeda's up-and-coming coming leadership.
The Philadelphia Enquirer (06/29) quotes Steve Clemons on policy conflicts within the Bush Administration.
Global Voices (06/28) cites Daniel Levy comparing Sarkozy and Bush's speeches before the Israeli Knesset.
The Washington Post (06/27) quotes Steve Clemons on North Korea's removal from the Terrorism Blacklist.
Project on Government Oversight (06/25) discusses William Hartung's proposal to reduce government waste.

Weekly Standard (6/1) discussed Peter Bergen's views on extreme and moderate Islam.
Wall Street Journal (5/31) seeks Daniel Levy's expert opinion on Israeli-Syrian negotiations.
World Politics Review (5/30) Parag Khanna critiques America's current Middle East Policy
Haaretz (5/30) Daniel Levy writes about the need for a unified Palestinian national movement.
TPM Cafe (5/29) William Hartung examines the lack of financial accountability in the Pentagon.

The International Energy Agency is preparing to release a report that will sharply downgrade forecasts of future oil supplies, mainly due to restrictions on capacity investment by oil exporting governments. It also projected growth in global demand of 1.2% this year as reductions in the U.S. and Europe are more than offset by strong demand growth in India, China, and the Middle East. News of the report helped push oil over $135 a barrel in Thursday trading and is likely to fuel argument that price increases are a product of long term structural change and not short term financial speculation.

Snapshot asks, can OPEC be pushed to invest in more than token capacity expansion?

Wall Street Journal - Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production Crunch
Bloomberg.com - IEA Plans to Lower Oil Supply Forecast in Next Annual Report
New York Times - New Fears on Long-Term Global Oil Supplies
Bloomberg.com - IEA Is Studying Output Depletion at Oilfields to Gauge Supply
International Herald Tribune - International Energy Agency urges OPEC to produce more oil