Gay Marriage

Perhaps the funniest and most interesting ad of the political season comes from the Courage Campaign, an online organizing group for liberals in California, which has produced its own ad opposing Prop 8, the same-sex marriage ban. Whether this ad makes it on the air will be interesting, but it's going viral on the web.

A couple has their "goodies" checked out by state "gender auditors." And, in an unserious way, it raises an interesting point. If there's a ban on same-sex marriage, exactly how will it be enforced?

Scanning email and the news from Bern, here's a bit of d.d. news.

PALIN AND PROPS: The Washington Post takes a look at Gov. Sarah Palin's last-minute intervention on behalf of mining interests against a ballot initiative this August. The Post suggests she may have broken state law barring the use of government resources to support or oppose a ballot measure.

FIRST 'YES ON 8' AD: It's brutal but effective. The supporters of the same-sex marriage ban in California debut a clever TV advertisement that stars Gavin Newsom, a same-sex marriage supporter. They don't make an argument against the marriage. They make an argument that you're being forced to accept same-sex marriage. (Newsom is quoted as saying that such marriages are coming whether you like it or not). It's not an idea pulled out of thin air. The state Supreme Court decision that legalized same-sex marriage this spring declared that gay couples had a constitutional right to acceptance of how they form families. It was a strong moral argument, but, in my reporting, some same-sex marriage supporters worried that it might be vulnerable politically (and perhaps legally).

In a blog post, Google co-founder Sergey Brin says the company opposes Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage. A handful of other companies have taken similar stances, and expect others to do as well. This isn't entirely new. In 2004, a number of corporations and corporate leaders opposed same-sex marriage bans in several states. One of the arguments; that the bans could make it harder for businesses in states with bans to recruit and retain the best employees. Brin's explanation also refers to workers, writing, "it is the chilling and discriminatory effect of the proposition on many of our employees that brings Google to publicly oppose Proposition 8." (Full disclosure: Google chairman and CEO Eric Schmidt is the chair of New America's board).

A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California shows three November ballot initiatives -- Prop 4 (parental notification before a minor has an abortion), Prop 8 (ban on same-sex marriage) and Prop 11 (redistricting reform) -- with less than majority support. Prop 11's supporters issued a statement last night saying the poll was good news, as it showed the measure leading 38 percent to 33 percent. I suppose that depends on one's definition of good news. Few measures with less than majoriting support at this point pass. And while the state's dysfunction may give redistricting reform an opportunity, it's bad news that the measure doesn't have more support -- even after a blow-up of the budget process. And with Californians sour on their state, it's not clear that any political figure or interest group has the credibility to convince undecided voters to support the measure in the numbers needed for it to pass. 

The poll suggests that voters may have more interest in broader reforms, including eliminating the requirement of a two-thirds vote in the legislature to pass a budget. California is one of only three states with such a super-majority rule.

Supporters of the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage have outpaced opponents  thus far. More details in this Los Angeles Times story. Bob Stern of the Center for Governmental Studies, which recently completed an excellent report on initiatives, says that Prop 8 could prove to be the most expensive campaign ever waged over a social issue.

It's an older married couple, together for more than 40 years, sitting and facing the camera and asking people not to eliminate the right to marriage for "our gay daughter" and thousands like her.

The Wall Street Journal reports that some 40 percent of donations to the campaign in favor of Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, come from Mormons. For my momey, the best part of the story is at the end, when one of the Yes on 8 campaign's evangelical leaders is grudgingly grateful for the cash, even as he says he wouldn't deign to talk with Mormons if it weren't for this campaign. C'mon guys, can't you get over ancient religious traditions and come together, accepting one another and feeling the love?

Oh, that's right. I forgot this is the Prop 8 campaign.

A new Field Poll shows that Prop 8, the California ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriage, is in deep trouble. It has just 38 percent support of likely voters in the poll; 55 percent were opposed. The poll finds that the amended summary of the measure, emphasizing that the measure would eliminate a right, is a factor in the movement against the initiative.

And the big public campaign against the measure is just beginning; Brad Pitt announced a $100,000 donation to defeat Prop 8 yesterday, locking up the all important Thelma and Louise vote. I can count on the fingers of one hand the number of measures I've seen rebound from such polling to pass. It appears that same-sex marriage will remain a right in California. The one dark cloud on the horizon is: if opponents of same-sex marriage lose this time in California, will they return to the ballot and try again?

Fifty-four percent of likely voters oppose Prop 8, the California initiative to ban same-sex marriage, in a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California. (Note to those clicking on the poll link: The findings are first reported on page 7 of the poll document). Only 40 percent support the measure. 

Initiatives that face that kind of opposition two months before an election almost always lose. But the PPIC offers a few caveats. Public attitudes continue to be split -- 47 to 47 -- on the question of whether gay couples should be permitted to marry. Those numbers haven't budged in three years. And the poll finds that opponents of same-sex marriage care more about the issue than the supporters of same-sex marriage.

The same poll shows less than 50 percent support for Prop 4, an initiative to require parental notification before a minor secures an abortion. And the poll shows Prop 11, the redistricting initiative, has far less than majority support. It's 39 percent yes, 36 percent no. And the measure fails to draw majority support from Democrats, Republicans or independents. Some of those involved in the measure have told me that redistricting has a chance this time because the campaign against it has been slow to organize and spend money. Perhaps. But it appears that a "no" campaign may not be required to defeat the measure. It could fail purely on the lingering skepticism of voters who have turned down similar redistricting proposals time after time.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, known as the Mormons, officially opposes same-sex marriage. But the church also acknowledges that members may think differently about the issue. Some of those members have put together a site, Mormons For Marriage, that is worth a look. The site says they stand "in respectful opposition" to California's Prop 8, the proposed initiative ban on same-sex marriage.