Economic Growth

There are many impediments to making progress on the new infrastructure investments that America desperately needs: the difficulty of securing financing (whether through new energy taxes, private-public partnerships, or tax-credit bonds); national and regional political dysfunction; and the inability to prioritize projects. To that list, add NIMBY ("Not in My Backyard"), local opposition to a proposal for new development...

A lot of people who normally don't take much notice of railroads were startled over the weekend when Warren Buffett, "the sage of Omaha," announced that he spending $26 billion to buy that last 77 percent of Burlington Northern Santa Fe shares he doesn't already own. Buffett described his investment as a big bet on the U.S. economy generally, and on BNSF, the nation's second largest railroad, in particular...

One day after the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the U.S. had returned to GDP growth, the Obama Administration released new numbers about the job-creation effects of the Recovery Act. The federal stimulus program has saved or created just over 640,000 jobs through a combination of aid to state and local governments, infrastructure spending, and federal loans and grants to private businesses. (640,239 jobs to be exact, Joe Biden said this morning.)...

The U.S. High Speed Rail Association's (HSRA) recent conference, High Speed Rail 2009, brought together policymakers, academics, and rail experts from around the world to outline a comprehensive plan for high-speed rail (HSR) in the United States. Good timing: as the Obama Administration prepares to roll out $8 billion in stimulus spending and an additional $5 billion, five-year annual appropriation for HSR, participants discussed how best to allocate the funds and how much more money is needed.

The HSRA's headline proposal: a 17,000-mile, coast-to-coast network with trains running at top speeds of 220 mph, built out over the next 20 years. Such a plan would cost $600 billion, the group estimates--$30 billion per year for 20 years...

By the looks of the September personal income data released this morning, we went back to the consumer slump in September. Cash for clunkers has officially clunked.

The decline in personal consumption expenditures was led by the decline in consumption of durables goods in the wake of Cash for Clunkers. At an annual rate, consumption of durable goods dropped by 47.2 billion, or 7% (see above). The overall decline in personal income expenditures showed a .5% decline...

Yesterday, I attended a Georgetown Law-Aspen Institute session with "pay czar" Kenneth Feinberg (a title he says his Russian grandmother would have abhorred: he prefers Special Master for TARP Executive Compensation). The timing was propitious: just last week, Feinberg announced 2009 payment structures and restrictions for the top 25 executives at the seven firms that have received the most TARP cash (the murderers' row: Citigroup, Bank of America, AIG, General Motors, GMAC, Chrysler and Chrysler Financial). In yesterday's conversation with the FT's Clive Crook, Feinberg outlined the methodology he used to reach his conclusions, defended himself against criticisms of overreach, and described the next steps and larger implications of his decisions....

The Case-Shiller index reported higher than expected values in house prices in August for the largest 20 cities across the U.S. The gains came on the back of government tax credits and programs to increase lending.

But, prices may have further to fall. As you can see in the chart above from Haver Analytics and David Rosenberg, housing prices adjusted for inflation would have to fall by another 20% to reach their mean historical value...

The Conference Board, a non-profit business management research organization, today released its widely-watched Leading Economic Index (LEI) data for the month of September. The index, which gauges the national economic outlook for the next three to six months, rose 1.0 percent in September, beating out economists' forecasts of 0.8 percent and constituting the sixth consecutive monthly gain...

We'll have much more on yesterday's Bernard Schwartz Economic Growth Symposium, "The Jobs Deficit," in the days to come (in the meantime, photos and video of the panels and Jared Bernstein's keynote address are available here). But one idea that was much-discussed at the symposium, and has been getting a lot of play recently in the national media, is Timothy Bartik's proposal for a job creation tax credit...

On Wednesday, Attorney General Eric Holder and Education Secretary Arne Duncan spoke in Chicago about youth violence following the shocking video-taped incident of a student being beaten outside of Fenger High School on the south side.

Holder spoke about emergency measures to provide more safety including, "metal detectors, locks, surveillance systems and other equipment to help deter crime. These are first steps, and we will do more."...